So the title is a little off because college football has already been back for a few weeks but I have been too busy to post about it. Although I have found time to gamble, going 14-9 in both college and pros since the start of football. But enough about that and time for the first game.
San Diego St +10.5 @ Michigan. O/U 60.5
San Diego State might be most recently known for producing Michigan's current coach, Brady Hoke, but they are definitely going to make a name for themselves after this game. The Aztecs have a very potent offense led by stud running back Ronnie Hillman, currently 2nd in nation in rushing, QB Ryan Lindley, a crafty veteran who has played in some big games, and a veteran O-Line.
SDSU defense hasn't been great but has done enough for them to remain unbeaten. They gave up a few big plays to Washington State last week, otherwise kept them in check. Especially in the 2nd half. The Aztecs held on for a nail biter against the running attack of Army, but they won't see many teams with an obscure offense like the Black Knights ran. The Aztecs run an attacking style of the 3-3-5 defense which can lead to a big play for either team.
The Michigan offense is very potent, led by perennial early season Heisman hopeful, Denard Robinson. Robinson is able to light it up with his feet as well as his arm. But with the outstanding athleticism, comes a penchant for making costly errors. The Aztecs will likely keep up their pressure defense to help force Robinson into making bad decisions. But to do that, SDSU has to contain Michigan's run game. I'm not totally sold on the Wolverine O-Line as of yet especially against a pressure defense, which may lead to a rough day for Robinson.
Overall, Michigan may be able to sneak out the win but I definitely think SDSU can cover the 10.5 points in higher scoring affair. My play would be SDSU +10.5 but a very solid play is over the 60.5 total.
LSU -6 @ West Virginia
Just a real quick break down of this game. It is going to boil down to LSU having better athletes at every position but QB. The Tigers offensive line will wear down the weaker WVU defensive front with a power running game that has been very effect this year. On the otherside of the ball, WVU QB Geno Smith is very capable of making plays. But so is the LSU defense. LSU rotates 5-7 people on the d-line, all of which have pro potential. LSU's defense is littered with NFL potential at every position. Although WVU may be competitive in the Big East this year, LSU is the cream of the SEC crop.
LSU -6 is the play as the Tigers prove to be too much in a sound beating of the Mountaineers.
Oklahoma State +4.5 @ Texas A&M
Another brief breakdown which I will try to expound upon later. Oklahoma State has an incredible offense with lots of NFL potential. Texas A&M is playing at home, which is a big plus in their favor, and also has a very high powered offense. Both QB's, Weeden and Tannehill, are prone to make mistakes. Both defenses are suspect and can give up a few big plays here and there. OSU has played a very solid Arizona team that they thoroughly put a whoopin on in the 2nd half. This is the first real test for A&M and it will be interesting to see how Tannehill reacts in his first full year as starter. I think this game comes down to the wire and could go either direction. With that being said, OSU +4.5 is the play as the Cowboys could steal this one.
Thanks for reading and sorry for the short commentary. Hopefully I will find time to blog again more frequently. For those of you that actually read this, if you are curious as to further insight into any college or pro game, leave a comment and I will try to respond. It is always interesting to get genuine opinions from others when betting the games. Good luck
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Weekend Update
Once again, sorry for the infrequent posts. Hope to change that in the upcoming week. I will be on the road a lot so that should help with posting frequency. It has been a good week since changing strategies to wager on several games instead of only 1 or 2 games. So in light of changing my strategy, I am going to change the format here as well for a while, at least for baseball. Instead of posting a * value on a game or two, I will post picks on 4+ games, with a little less incite on each one and valued the same. Here we go.
Angels (Weaver 14-5, 1.78 ERA -$130 @ Blue Jays (Romero 10-9, 2.94 ERA)
This match up pits a recently suspended Jerad Weaver against a very game Ricky Romero. Both pitchers have had good seasons, as evidence by their ERA's. But Weaver is pitching on another level right now. He has been in the zone for the last 2 months with the exception of a half inning were Detroit got in his head and he decided to buzz a tower and get suspended for six games. Romero has pitched exceptionally well his last 3 although they were v Orioles, @ Orioles and @ Tampa.
When breaking down the bats for these teams, the edge goes to Toronto. The Jays are a power team for the most part while the Angels are more of a "small ball" type team. The Jays haven't seen a pitcher of Weaver's caliber in a long time and I expect them to struggle. Romero has had the tendency to to give up some baserunners via the walk, which helps to play into the Angels hand.
Both bullpens are mediocre which may not be much of a factor in the anticipated pitchers duel with top end starters on the mound. The Angels are few games over .500 v lefty starters while the Jays are a few games under .500 v rightys. The Angels are also still fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. The one thing that makes me a little leary is the Angels haven't faced a lefty starter in 10 days or so. They have a bunch of veterans on the team though and I think they shake off the rust. Take the Angels moneyline with Weaver on the mound.
Pirates (Correia 12-10, 4.78 ERA) @ Brewers (Estrada 2-7, 4.80)
This game is a classic hot home team v cold road team. Pitt is in the middle of a 6 game road trip while the Brewers just returned home after taking 5 of 6 on the highway. Estrada is coming out of the pen and making his first start since early may for the injured Narveson. Estrada's numbers aren't very good but largely in part to a poor outing v Atlanta earlier this year. On the other side of the diamond, Correia has been poor. He pitched well a few games ago, otherwise his last 2 months have been very Jo Jo Reyes-esque. If you don't know Jo Jo, just know he hadn't won a game in 2 years until earlier this year. The Pirates bats caught some fire out in SF but the Giants have been struggling as evidence to their loss to the Marlins last night. The Brewers bats have been red hot up and down the lineup. Everyone seems to be coming through right now, so Estrada may not be asked to do a whole lot. Also, Correia has been very poor in Milwaukee.
With Correia giving up a bunch as of late combined with a legit playoff team playing very hot, you have to lean on the Brewers to win. But with a shaky starter in, he'll probably give up a couple.
Two plays on this game, Brewers moneyline as they take care of business and over the posted 8.5 although it will probably be 9 by first pitch.
Astros (Rodriquez 8-8, 3.52 ERA) @ Dodgers (Kershaw 13-5. 2.79 ERA)
I know last time I said go Kershaw, it didn't pan out. It will today. Kershaw was in control of his last start, stayed in for one batter too long and gave a 2-run shot to the #8 hitter for his frst HR of the year. Unlikely Houston will be able to pull off that magic. The Dodgers middle of the order is solid, although not producing like they have in years past. The 'Stros have traded away all their bats except and aging Carlos Lee. The price is fairly high on the game at Dodgers -210 but Houston is the worst team in baseball and they are facing a top 10 pitcher. Despite the big risk, Dodgers moneyline straight to the bank. Or if the lose, straight to the tavern.
Sorry for the shortened blog but I have run out of time. These are some other games to look at:
Texas moneyline -$125-- Texas has the better bats and have dominated Oakland this year. Lewis not the best pitcher and Cahill for Oakland has pitched well against Texas before, but Rangers in playoff hunt and bats just too much.
Detroit moneyline -$135-- The Tigers haven't been playing all the well but neither are the Orioles. Scherzer for Detroit is solid and Guthrie for Baltimore, although decent lately, is known for getting shelled. Detroit still playing for the postseason, Baltimore struggling to get wins behind an ugly pitching staff. Even with Boesch out for Detroit, go with the Tigers.
This is still very much a work in progress but take from it what you can. Thanks for reading and good luck!
Angels (Weaver 14-5, 1.78 ERA -$130 @ Blue Jays (Romero 10-9, 2.94 ERA)
This match up pits a recently suspended Jerad Weaver against a very game Ricky Romero. Both pitchers have had good seasons, as evidence by their ERA's. But Weaver is pitching on another level right now. He has been in the zone for the last 2 months with the exception of a half inning were Detroit got in his head and he decided to buzz a tower and get suspended for six games. Romero has pitched exceptionally well his last 3 although they were v Orioles, @ Orioles and @ Tampa.
When breaking down the bats for these teams, the edge goes to Toronto. The Jays are a power team for the most part while the Angels are more of a "small ball" type team. The Jays haven't seen a pitcher of Weaver's caliber in a long time and I expect them to struggle. Romero has had the tendency to to give up some baserunners via the walk, which helps to play into the Angels hand.
Both bullpens are mediocre which may not be much of a factor in the anticipated pitchers duel with top end starters on the mound. The Angels are few games over .500 v lefty starters while the Jays are a few games under .500 v rightys. The Angels are also still fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. The one thing that makes me a little leary is the Angels haven't faced a lefty starter in 10 days or so. They have a bunch of veterans on the team though and I think they shake off the rust. Take the Angels moneyline with Weaver on the mound.
Pirates (Correia 12-10, 4.78 ERA) @ Brewers (Estrada 2-7, 4.80)
This game is a classic hot home team v cold road team. Pitt is in the middle of a 6 game road trip while the Brewers just returned home after taking 5 of 6 on the highway. Estrada is coming out of the pen and making his first start since early may for the injured Narveson. Estrada's numbers aren't very good but largely in part to a poor outing v Atlanta earlier this year. On the other side of the diamond, Correia has been poor. He pitched well a few games ago, otherwise his last 2 months have been very Jo Jo Reyes-esque. If you don't know Jo Jo, just know he hadn't won a game in 2 years until earlier this year. The Pirates bats caught some fire out in SF but the Giants have been struggling as evidence to their loss to the Marlins last night. The Brewers bats have been red hot up and down the lineup. Everyone seems to be coming through right now, so Estrada may not be asked to do a whole lot. Also, Correia has been very poor in Milwaukee.
With Correia giving up a bunch as of late combined with a legit playoff team playing very hot, you have to lean on the Brewers to win. But with a shaky starter in, he'll probably give up a couple.
Two plays on this game, Brewers moneyline as they take care of business and over the posted 8.5 although it will probably be 9 by first pitch.
Astros (Rodriquez 8-8, 3.52 ERA) @ Dodgers (Kershaw 13-5. 2.79 ERA)
I know last time I said go Kershaw, it didn't pan out. It will today. Kershaw was in control of his last start, stayed in for one batter too long and gave a 2-run shot to the #8 hitter for his frst HR of the year. Unlikely Houston will be able to pull off that magic. The Dodgers middle of the order is solid, although not producing like they have in years past. The 'Stros have traded away all their bats except and aging Carlos Lee. The price is fairly high on the game at Dodgers -210 but Houston is the worst team in baseball and they are facing a top 10 pitcher. Despite the big risk, Dodgers moneyline straight to the bank. Or if the lose, straight to the tavern.
Sorry for the shortened blog but I have run out of time. These are some other games to look at:
Texas moneyline -$125-- Texas has the better bats and have dominated Oakland this year. Lewis not the best pitcher and Cahill for Oakland has pitched well against Texas before, but Rangers in playoff hunt and bats just too much.
Detroit moneyline -$135-- The Tigers haven't been playing all the well but neither are the Orioles. Scherzer for Detroit is solid and Guthrie for Baltimore, although decent lately, is known for getting shelled. Detroit still playing for the postseason, Baltimore struggling to get wins behind an ugly pitching staff. Even with Boesch out for Detroit, go with the Tigers.
This is still very much a work in progress but take from it what you can. Thanks for reading and good luck!
Sunday, August 7, 2011
The Sunday Post
So it's been a while since anything has been posted. This is due to a few things. Work and family time have kept me busy enough where I haven't had time to put out a decent blog, not implying that the blogs were decent before, but at least acceptable. Another reason has been my attempts to change up my betting strategy with baseball.
Previously I was looking every day for the best game or two that was available for that days card. I would start with about 8 games and whittle it down to the 2 or so. It was mildly successful so I decided to try to switch to only betting on "Ace" pitchers. Sabathia, Verlander, Weaver, Lincecum, etc. I only stuck with that for a few weeks but it seemed to be heading in the right direction. Some days you would have a play, other days you wouldn't. The major downside though is if the Ace loses, the moneyline is usually very high (-$160+) and can set you back when building a bankroll.
So on to my newest strategy. When I first started, I said I would narrow the games I liked down to 1 or 2 from a group of 8 or so. Looking back the next day, my record on all games was generally over.500. This has led to my newest strategy of betting several games in a day. I have enough background information where I don't have to dig extensively into every team which saves a lot of time. Moneylines are generally the recommended play. I have decreased the bet size however while increasing the total number of bets. This hedges against days with big losses. Also, not every day warrants this kind of action. When looking at the days card, maybe only 2 or 3 games look good. Then my play is the best one of the day, either winner or loser for the day depending on my #1 rated game. Or just no play at all sometimes. Other days by looking at the card, you can get a feel for several games. That is where this method comes in. Not sure if this will be sustainable long term, but is at least profitable in the short term thus far.
As the season moves on....
As baseball approaches the post season, teams begin to feel the urgency or realize they are just playing out meaningless games. Teams that need to win to keep postseason hopes alive will generally play better than teams that are going home after the season. Pretty obvious, right? Playing hot teams right now is also something to look at. The Phillies are a prime example. On the road, yet they are tearing it up since acquiring OF Hunter Pence at the trade deadline. They realize post season is around the corner, they have been there before and it is time to step it up. Teams like the Angels, Texas, Brewers, and Cards are other teams to watch that will be fighting for playoff spots.
As contenders rise to the top, Fall call ups become a reality for several teams. Fringe players get benched for youngsters with a point to prove. This can pan out two ways. The younger player wants to make a name, has actual talent, and makes the most of it. Other times, the minor league player may not be ready for the Show and can be a major disappoint for the last month or two. Keep track of the lineups daily but don't be fooled by a .400 batting average. The guy may only have 4 games under his belt against weak pitching and is just waiting for a collapse.
Today's Picks
Dodgers (Kershaw 13-4, 2.68 ERA) -$110 at D'Backs (Kennedy 13-3, 3.17 ERA)
Dodgers have taken the first 2 games of the series at Arizona despite Arizona needing to come up with some wins to stay in the playoff race. The Dodgers, on the other hand, generally don't have much to play. Teams front office in shambles, season is a mess, one of the few motivating factors left to play for ( other than money and pride) is a chance for Clayton Kershaw to get the Cy Young. Although an outside chance, he has been just filthy. He has won 6 of his last 7 starts and has been striking out fools left and right. He has 'struggled' his last two, however, giving up 4 ER in 17 innings while striking out only 10. Also, Arizona has not faced a lefty starter in almost 10 days, not sure Kershaw wants to be the first lefty you see after stretch like that. In Kershaw's 2 starts against AZ this year, he has gone 14 innings, 0 ER (4 R), and 19 K's. On the flipside, Arizona's Ian Kennedy has also been pitching very well. He has won 5 straight starts while giving up 3 ER or less in all of them.
Basically boils down to the LA is playing better and Kershaw has pitched a better than Kennedy, although not by as much as you would think. Kershaw just too much as I put a 10* value on this play.
Padres (Latos, 5-11, 3.94 ERA) -$110 at Pirates (Correia 12-9, 4.71 ERA)
Very brief overview due to the fact that both of these teams, in the grand scheme, are done for the year. I look at the Padres moneyline in this game though. San Diego has absolutely piss pounded the Pirates the last 2 games. Pirates have lost 11 of 12 after being named ESPN's feel good team of the summer. So much for that. Even with the Pirates picking up Derek Lee from Baltimore and Ryan Ludwick from SD, they have gone straight to the toilet. Correia has been a grease fire at home his last 3 starts, going no more 4 2/3 innings and giving up at least 5 ER in all 3 games. Ouch. Latos on the other hand has been pitching fairly well after a rough start.
After all is said and done, this is the perfect hot team v cold team and even colder pitcher. Padres with a 10* play.
Reds (Arroyo 7-9, 5.45 ERA) at Cubs (Wells, 3-4. 5. ERA) -$110
Cubs have been red hot as of late, including roughing up the Reds #1 guy in Cueto yesterday. That was the Cubbies 7th straight win, longest in 3 years I believe. The Reds have lost 4 of 5 thus far on their road trip to Houston and Chicago. Not exactly the cream of the crop. Wells, although he has struggled this year, has traditionally pitched well against Cincy. I think the big mismatch comes against Arroyo though. The Cubs bats have been red hot. And after watching Arroyo in his last few starts, it's amazing this guy still has a stop in the rotation. He is a 3 run homer waiting to happen. Teams get lots of hits of him and in the 'Friendly Confines", I see Arroyo getting torched.
The Cubs have burned my ass several times this year, much like the Jets in football last year, but I still feel they are just too hot to stay off of. Cubs with a 10* play.
Football is Upon Us
Starting soon I will be going into college footballl previews. I said that before, but then life happened and I have been crazy busy. The NFL previews will have to wait due to the craziness surrounding the end of the lockout. I played a few games of NCAA 12 on Xbox 360 and I now have the fever. Baseball has been great but I only see myself involved with it another week or two. Football is much more compelling to me and I would imagine many of you.
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Previously I was looking every day for the best game or two that was available for that days card. I would start with about 8 games and whittle it down to the 2 or so. It was mildly successful so I decided to try to switch to only betting on "Ace" pitchers. Sabathia, Verlander, Weaver, Lincecum, etc. I only stuck with that for a few weeks but it seemed to be heading in the right direction. Some days you would have a play, other days you wouldn't. The major downside though is if the Ace loses, the moneyline is usually very high (-$160+) and can set you back when building a bankroll.
So on to my newest strategy. When I first started, I said I would narrow the games I liked down to 1 or 2 from a group of 8 or so. Looking back the next day, my record on all games was generally over.500. This has led to my newest strategy of betting several games in a day. I have enough background information where I don't have to dig extensively into every team which saves a lot of time. Moneylines are generally the recommended play. I have decreased the bet size however while increasing the total number of bets. This hedges against days with big losses. Also, not every day warrants this kind of action. When looking at the days card, maybe only 2 or 3 games look good. Then my play is the best one of the day, either winner or loser for the day depending on my #1 rated game. Or just no play at all sometimes. Other days by looking at the card, you can get a feel for several games. That is where this method comes in. Not sure if this will be sustainable long term, but is at least profitable in the short term thus far.
As the season moves on....
As baseball approaches the post season, teams begin to feel the urgency or realize they are just playing out meaningless games. Teams that need to win to keep postseason hopes alive will generally play better than teams that are going home after the season. Pretty obvious, right? Playing hot teams right now is also something to look at. The Phillies are a prime example. On the road, yet they are tearing it up since acquiring OF Hunter Pence at the trade deadline. They realize post season is around the corner, they have been there before and it is time to step it up. Teams like the Angels, Texas, Brewers, and Cards are other teams to watch that will be fighting for playoff spots.
As contenders rise to the top, Fall call ups become a reality for several teams. Fringe players get benched for youngsters with a point to prove. This can pan out two ways. The younger player wants to make a name, has actual talent, and makes the most of it. Other times, the minor league player may not be ready for the Show and can be a major disappoint for the last month or two. Keep track of the lineups daily but don't be fooled by a .400 batting average. The guy may only have 4 games under his belt against weak pitching and is just waiting for a collapse.
Today's Picks
Dodgers (Kershaw 13-4, 2.68 ERA) -$110 at D'Backs (Kennedy 13-3, 3.17 ERA)
Dodgers have taken the first 2 games of the series at Arizona despite Arizona needing to come up with some wins to stay in the playoff race. The Dodgers, on the other hand, generally don't have much to play. Teams front office in shambles, season is a mess, one of the few motivating factors left to play for ( other than money and pride) is a chance for Clayton Kershaw to get the Cy Young. Although an outside chance, he has been just filthy. He has won 6 of his last 7 starts and has been striking out fools left and right. He has 'struggled' his last two, however, giving up 4 ER in 17 innings while striking out only 10. Also, Arizona has not faced a lefty starter in almost 10 days, not sure Kershaw wants to be the first lefty you see after stretch like that. In Kershaw's 2 starts against AZ this year, he has gone 14 innings, 0 ER (4 R), and 19 K's. On the flipside, Arizona's Ian Kennedy has also been pitching very well. He has won 5 straight starts while giving up 3 ER or less in all of them.
Basically boils down to the LA is playing better and Kershaw has pitched a better than Kennedy, although not by as much as you would think. Kershaw just too much as I put a 10* value on this play.
Padres (Latos, 5-11, 3.94 ERA) -$110 at Pirates (Correia 12-9, 4.71 ERA)
Very brief overview due to the fact that both of these teams, in the grand scheme, are done for the year. I look at the Padres moneyline in this game though. San Diego has absolutely piss pounded the Pirates the last 2 games. Pirates have lost 11 of 12 after being named ESPN's feel good team of the summer. So much for that. Even with the Pirates picking up Derek Lee from Baltimore and Ryan Ludwick from SD, they have gone straight to the toilet. Correia has been a grease fire at home his last 3 starts, going no more 4 2/3 innings and giving up at least 5 ER in all 3 games. Ouch. Latos on the other hand has been pitching fairly well after a rough start.
After all is said and done, this is the perfect hot team v cold team and even colder pitcher. Padres with a 10* play.
Reds (Arroyo 7-9, 5.45 ERA) at Cubs (Wells, 3-4. 5. ERA) -$110
Cubs have been red hot as of late, including roughing up the Reds #1 guy in Cueto yesterday. That was the Cubbies 7th straight win, longest in 3 years I believe. The Reds have lost 4 of 5 thus far on their road trip to Houston and Chicago. Not exactly the cream of the crop. Wells, although he has struggled this year, has traditionally pitched well against Cincy. I think the big mismatch comes against Arroyo though. The Cubs bats have been red hot. And after watching Arroyo in his last few starts, it's amazing this guy still has a stop in the rotation. He is a 3 run homer waiting to happen. Teams get lots of hits of him and in the 'Friendly Confines", I see Arroyo getting torched.
The Cubs have burned my ass several times this year, much like the Jets in football last year, but I still feel they are just too hot to stay off of. Cubs with a 10* play.
Football is Upon Us
Starting soon I will be going into college footballl previews. I said that before, but then life happened and I have been crazy busy. The NFL previews will have to wait due to the craziness surrounding the end of the lockout. I played a few games of NCAA 12 on Xbox 360 and I now have the fever. Baseball has been great but I only see myself involved with it another week or two. Football is much more compelling to me and I would imagine many of you.
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Been Busy
Been busy with the whole work thing so haven't had much time to post. I struggle with my last picks on Saturday going 1-2, with the Rays choking away a game to prevent another winning day. Yesterday Verlander and the Tigers and Weaver and the Angels both brought wins for me. Since I have been overly busy as of late, I am only going to post every couple of days til things slow down. Today I, there wasn't much out there that I really thought was worth analyzing so probably no post today. So the blog will be less frequent til football season due to my schedule. Thanks again for the read
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Saturday Matchup
Thursday's game didn't go as I had hoped, with the Yankees losing 2-1 against the Rays. 5* 1-1, 10*4-2, 20* 0-1 is where I stand right now. I should have stuck with my guy instinct on Thursday night and supported Verlander and the Tigers at a -$155 price. Talked myself out of a winner and right into a loser. Great. Fridays action, however, I was able to post a winner. I was unable to blog yesterday but still found a winner with the Atlanta Braves (Jurrjens) at -$115 at the Reds and Bronson Arroyo. With Jurrjens on the mound as only a slight favorite against a Cincy team that was in a hitting funk and a pitcher who couldn't keep people off the basepaths. I was able to personally get a winner but won't count it on my record here since I was unable to record it. Time to break the blog losing streak and get another winner today.
San Diego (Latos, 5-10, 4.02 ERA) at Philadelphia (Kendrick, 5-4, 3.34) -$140
A play on the Phillies moneyline is my first play for the day. Latos is not the same pitcher he was last year. He is still very young and has a lot of room to grow, but a veteran lineup like the Phillies should be able to knock him around a bit. The Phillies have been putting up solid offensive numbers too while going 6-2 over their last 8. In all 6 Phils victories, the have won by at least 2 runs. That stat makes me want to possibly play the runline, -1.5 at +$155 for Philly. However, my bad luck with runlines scares me off of it. Shane Victorino has also returned to the Phillies lineup to help give them an offensive boost. He has already had a couple games back and got his first hit last night against SD, a sign he might be getting back in his .300 hitting groove before he went down earlier this month. Latos has pitched well against teams that aren't great at the plate (SF, LA, Sea) but has been roughed up against more experienced, better hitting teams (Bos, Col). SD does have a very solid bullpen, however, anchored by closer Heath Bell. They did trot out 3 relievers last night though, which gives Philly an edge by already seeing those pitchers. Where as Hamels went 8 and Madsen came in to close the door for Philly.
As for SD, they were able to put up some runs against Florida last series but I'm not sure that will carry over to this series, as evident by the 3-1 loss last night to Philly. Chases Headley and Jesus Guzman both have respectable averages, but everyone else in the Padres line up struggles to get on base. They are facing a pitcher in Kendrick who has been very respectable when he has been called upon to start, sporting a 3.60 ERA for July. Kendrick is a pitcher who doesn't walk many and makes teams put the ball in play, not exactly SD's strongest facet. Philly doesn't have as strong of bullpen, but as long as Kendrick can log 6-7 innings, there shouldn't be a worry.
With Philly cruising at home to a 5-2 record on Saturdays, I like the Phils for a 5* play on the moneyline. This was originally a 10* play but Ryan Howard is not in the starting lineup.
Detroit (Penny, 7-6, 4.47 ERA) +$110 at Minnesota (Baker, 7-5, 3.01 ERA)
The second play I like today is the Detroit Tigers moneyline as an underdog. Detroit has roughed up Minnesota in the first two games of the series although Detroit did have the starting pitching advantage in both of those games. Today's starters, Penny and Baker, both bring a different story to the table. Penny had struggle mightily for the Tigers to start the year, but has posted a solid run his last 5 starts, only giving 4 runs one time in 6 innings of work He is 2-0 in July with a 3.60 ERA in 3 starts. You can pencil him in for at least 6 innings which takes some pressure off the middle relievers who are not very good for Detroit. Opposing Penny is Scott Baker, who was lights out before going on the DL 3 weeks ago. Before the injury he was pitching well against TB and had shut down the Dodgers his previous start. I am betting on Baker having some rust against a hot Detroit lineup.
Detroit has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games, including the first two against the Twins. The Twins have only gone over 4 once in the last 7 and that was against a struggling Cleveland pitcher, certainly nothing to write home about. One big problem for the Twins has been the power outage from Joe Mauer. Although his average is climbing, he just doesn't have the power back yet after his knee injuries. Jason Kubel is back for the Twins after missing significant time and had 2 walks and a hit. Not a bad return, but not banking on that performance two days in a row. Detroit is anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both are raking right now and have hit Scott Baker very well. Detroits team average against Baker is about .330, although that can be somewhat misleading considering they play every year and someone like Magglio Ordonez is not the hitter he was 2 or 3 years ago. Overall though, I think the Tigers just have too much firepower and have had the Twins number as of late.
Take Detroit +$110 on the moneyline for 10*.
Tampa Bay (Niemann, 4-4, 3.94 ERA) -$120 at Kansas City (Francis, 3-11, 4.62 ERA)
Tampa Bay on the moneyline is the play here. Niemann has been pitching very well against very potent competition as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA in July in 21.1 innings against NY, Bos and STL while going 2-0. Francis has not been nearly as sharp but is still pitching ok. He posts a 3.72 ERA in July but KC has lost his 6 starts and 7 of last 8. Francis has not gotten great run support all year, while Niemann has had solid to good run support, even if he only has a 4-4 record. Niemann had a long stint on the DL earlier this year and returned in mid June. He has only given up more than 1 ER once since coming of the DL in 5 starts. Very promising start.
Kansas City has been playing better as of late, but it has been against lesser competition, winning 3 in a row against 3 shaky pitchers (Peavy, Danks, and Wade Davis in first start back). Tampa has struggled going 2-7 in the last 9 but have all been very tight games against the BoSox and and Yankees. KC is getting good all around production but I think Niemann can shut them down. Francis has not pitched that great against poor teams, so the Rays should welcome the chance to see some lesser pitching.
Due to KC hammering them last night, I am only putting a 5* on the Tampa Bay moneyline.
3 games today, hopefully coming away with 3 big winners. Good luck and thanks again for reading.
San Diego (Latos, 5-10, 4.02 ERA) at Philadelphia (Kendrick, 5-4, 3.34) -$140
A play on the Phillies moneyline is my first play for the day. Latos is not the same pitcher he was last year. He is still very young and has a lot of room to grow, but a veteran lineup like the Phillies should be able to knock him around a bit. The Phillies have been putting up solid offensive numbers too while going 6-2 over their last 8. In all 6 Phils victories, the have won by at least 2 runs. That stat makes me want to possibly play the runline, -1.5 at +$155 for Philly. However, my bad luck with runlines scares me off of it. Shane Victorino has also returned to the Phillies lineup to help give them an offensive boost. He has already had a couple games back and got his first hit last night against SD, a sign he might be getting back in his .300 hitting groove before he went down earlier this month. Latos has pitched well against teams that aren't great at the plate (SF, LA, Sea) but has been roughed up against more experienced, better hitting teams (Bos, Col). SD does have a very solid bullpen, however, anchored by closer Heath Bell. They did trot out 3 relievers last night though, which gives Philly an edge by already seeing those pitchers. Where as Hamels went 8 and Madsen came in to close the door for Philly.
As for SD, they were able to put up some runs against Florida last series but I'm not sure that will carry over to this series, as evident by the 3-1 loss last night to Philly. Chases Headley and Jesus Guzman both have respectable averages, but everyone else in the Padres line up struggles to get on base. They are facing a pitcher in Kendrick who has been very respectable when he has been called upon to start, sporting a 3.60 ERA for July. Kendrick is a pitcher who doesn't walk many and makes teams put the ball in play, not exactly SD's strongest facet. Philly doesn't have as strong of bullpen, but as long as Kendrick can log 6-7 innings, there shouldn't be a worry.
With Philly cruising at home to a 5-2 record on Saturdays, I like the Phils for a 5* play on the moneyline. This was originally a 10* play but Ryan Howard is not in the starting lineup.
Detroit (Penny, 7-6, 4.47 ERA) +$110 at Minnesota (Baker, 7-5, 3.01 ERA)
The second play I like today is the Detroit Tigers moneyline as an underdog. Detroit has roughed up Minnesota in the first two games of the series although Detroit did have the starting pitching advantage in both of those games. Today's starters, Penny and Baker, both bring a different story to the table. Penny had struggle mightily for the Tigers to start the year, but has posted a solid run his last 5 starts, only giving 4 runs one time in 6 innings of work He is 2-0 in July with a 3.60 ERA in 3 starts. You can pencil him in for at least 6 innings which takes some pressure off the middle relievers who are not very good for Detroit. Opposing Penny is Scott Baker, who was lights out before going on the DL 3 weeks ago. Before the injury he was pitching well against TB and had shut down the Dodgers his previous start. I am betting on Baker having some rust against a hot Detroit lineup.
Detroit has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games, including the first two against the Twins. The Twins have only gone over 4 once in the last 7 and that was against a struggling Cleveland pitcher, certainly nothing to write home about. One big problem for the Twins has been the power outage from Joe Mauer. Although his average is climbing, he just doesn't have the power back yet after his knee injuries. Jason Kubel is back for the Twins after missing significant time and had 2 walks and a hit. Not a bad return, but not banking on that performance two days in a row. Detroit is anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both are raking right now and have hit Scott Baker very well. Detroits team average against Baker is about .330, although that can be somewhat misleading considering they play every year and someone like Magglio Ordonez is not the hitter he was 2 or 3 years ago. Overall though, I think the Tigers just have too much firepower and have had the Twins number as of late.
Take Detroit +$110 on the moneyline for 10*.
Tampa Bay (Niemann, 4-4, 3.94 ERA) -$120 at Kansas City (Francis, 3-11, 4.62 ERA)
Tampa Bay on the moneyline is the play here. Niemann has been pitching very well against very potent competition as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA in July in 21.1 innings against NY, Bos and STL while going 2-0. Francis has not been nearly as sharp but is still pitching ok. He posts a 3.72 ERA in July but KC has lost his 6 starts and 7 of last 8. Francis has not gotten great run support all year, while Niemann has had solid to good run support, even if he only has a 4-4 record. Niemann had a long stint on the DL earlier this year and returned in mid June. He has only given up more than 1 ER once since coming of the DL in 5 starts. Very promising start.
Kansas City has been playing better as of late, but it has been against lesser competition, winning 3 in a row against 3 shaky pitchers (Peavy, Danks, and Wade Davis in first start back). Tampa has struggled going 2-7 in the last 9 but have all been very tight games against the BoSox and and Yankees. KC is getting good all around production but I think Niemann can shut them down. Francis has not pitched that great against poor teams, so the Rays should welcome the chance to see some lesser pitching.
Due to KC hammering them last night, I am only putting a 5* on the Tampa Bay moneyline.
3 games today, hopefully coming away with 3 big winners. Good luck and thanks again for reading.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Thursdays Pick
Wednesday's game went about as expected, other than the Giants didn't win. Pitchers duel with 2 average or below hitting clubs. Lincecum pitched well, but Kershaw was an absolute beast, striking out 12 in 8 innings of 3 hit ball. The over/under was set at 5.5 runs and had crossed my mind to bet the under but 5.5 total runs is just one soft inning from being a loss. So, another 5* loss puts my record at 5* 1-1, 10* 4-1 and 20* 0-1. Tomorrow is another busy travel day, so I am posting Thursday's winner (hopefully) tonight. This losing shit sucks, time to get back on the right side of the ledger.
Yankees -$140 (Sabathia, 14-4, 2.64 ERA) at Rays (Shields, 8-8, 2.60 ERA)
A moneyline play on the Yankees is what I'm banking on tomorrow. This is the last game of the series between these two division rivals. The Rays have struggle during their last 3 series (@ NY, v Bos, v NY) and the clear sign is the level of competition they are playing. The Yankees, on the flip side, have been playing decent despite A-Fraud being out and Big Tex Mark Texiera forgetting how to hit the damn ball. The Yankees bullpen, although not stellar, does have Robertson and Mo Rivera to lock things down when the games starting winding down. Unfortunately for TB, their bullpen does not have a real go to guy. The have a collection of pitchers who can each get the job done on a given night, but no guarantees the same guy shows up 2 nights in a row.
A big (literally) advantage the Yankees have is CC Sabathia though. He has been lights out while allowing only 1 ER in the month of July in 24 innings. The Yanks have gone 11-1 in CC last 12 starts. Not too shabby. He has also been given great run support, scoring less than 4 only once but that was against James Shields and TB on July 10th, a 1-0 victory. Shields started out red-hot for the Rays but they have lost his last 4 starts while scoring only 10 runs in those 4 games. Shields was roughed up at home for a 6 spot in 6 innings of work against the BoSox his last time out. Boston has been hitting more consistently than the Yankees but they still can't be overlooked. The Rays stole their 1 win for the series Tuesday night as I think the Yankees behind CC beat them in the finale. I would strongly look to the runline ( Yankees 1.5 @ +$130) but I have been absolutely dogshit when betting the runline. 10* on the Yankees moneyline.
Runlines
A little side not about runlines. To bet a the runline, you get +/- 1.5 runs depending on which side you choose. The Yankees tomorrow seem like a perfect candidate to play it but my luck has been poor with it. Runlines seem almost like a sucker bet unless you really know what you are doing. I'm still a rookie in baseball wagering but with experience I realize that they are a little above me yet. Nice payoffs, but that 1 run means a lot, especially if you are betting the home team and could lose an AB in the bottom of 9 if they have the lead. However, much like the teaser in football, there is a home for. I just need to find it. Once again, good luck and appreciate taking the time to read this.
Yankees -$140 (Sabathia, 14-4, 2.64 ERA) at Rays (Shields, 8-8, 2.60 ERA)
A moneyline play on the Yankees is what I'm banking on tomorrow. This is the last game of the series between these two division rivals. The Rays have struggle during their last 3 series (@ NY, v Bos, v NY) and the clear sign is the level of competition they are playing. The Yankees, on the flip side, have been playing decent despite A-Fraud being out and Big Tex Mark Texiera forgetting how to hit the damn ball. The Yankees bullpen, although not stellar, does have Robertson and Mo Rivera to lock things down when the games starting winding down. Unfortunately for TB, their bullpen does not have a real go to guy. The have a collection of pitchers who can each get the job done on a given night, but no guarantees the same guy shows up 2 nights in a row.
A big (literally) advantage the Yankees have is CC Sabathia though. He has been lights out while allowing only 1 ER in the month of July in 24 innings. The Yanks have gone 11-1 in CC last 12 starts. Not too shabby. He has also been given great run support, scoring less than 4 only once but that was against James Shields and TB on July 10th, a 1-0 victory. Shields started out red-hot for the Rays but they have lost his last 4 starts while scoring only 10 runs in those 4 games. Shields was roughed up at home for a 6 spot in 6 innings of work against the BoSox his last time out. Boston has been hitting more consistently than the Yankees but they still can't be overlooked. The Rays stole their 1 win for the series Tuesday night as I think the Yankees behind CC beat them in the finale. I would strongly look to the runline ( Yankees 1.5 @ +$130) but I have been absolutely dogshit when betting the runline. 10* on the Yankees moneyline.
Runlines
A little side not about runlines. To bet a the runline, you get +/- 1.5 runs depending on which side you choose. The Yankees tomorrow seem like a perfect candidate to play it but my luck has been poor with it. Runlines seem almost like a sucker bet unless you really know what you are doing. I'm still a rookie in baseball wagering but with experience I realize that they are a little above me yet. Nice payoffs, but that 1 run means a lot, especially if you are betting the home team and could lose an AB in the bottom of 9 if they have the lead. However, much like the teaser in football, there is a home for. I just need to find it. Once again, good luck and appreciate taking the time to read this.
Back to Reality
Yesterday was a rough one, losing Boston on a 20* play and the Indians losing a 10* play as well. Boston was within striking distance til the very end when Baltimore blew it open whereas the Indians had the lead going into the bottom of 9 when the Tribes closer Chris Perez decides to puke all over himself and give up the game. Frustrating. Generally I would have only posted a 10* play on both games, but having some money in the bank I decided to up the ante with a 20* play. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. On to today's games and back to the winning side of the ledger. Record still stands at 20* 0-1, 10* 4-1, 5* 1-0 for an approximate total of +10* ( Wins - Losses - Juice = Profit).
Dodgers (Kershaw, 10-8, 2.44 ERA) @ Giants -$135 (Lincecum, 8-7, 2.99 ERA)
Only one game on the docket today that really piques my interest and the is a moneyline play on the Giants. The Giants have had the Dodgers number as of late, winning the first 2 games of the series in SF. The Giants as a team are 18-7 vs leftys this year while the Dodgers are 30-41 against rightys. Also, the Giants are 30-16 at home while the Dodgers are 19-28 on the road.
Kershaw has pitched 15 straight innings without giving up and ER although he did give up 4 unearned last game yet still getting the win vs AZ. Lincecum has given up only 1ER in each of his last two starts, clearly moving beyond his early season struggles. Kershaw and Lincecum have both been pitching extremely well as of late but the difference could be in the bullpen. Dodgers pen is not nearly as effective as the Giants, as evidence by last night where the Dodgers pen allowed the Giants to break the tie and the Brian Wilson came in to close the door on the struggling LA team. Dodgers have a pen ERA of 3.51 on the road while the Giants post a stingy 2.10 ERA at home. As a staff, the edge goes to SF, although Kershaw should be able to eat up some innings to prevent the pen from screwing things up.
As for the bats, Dodgers haven't had much pop, only putting up over 4 runs twice since early July. However, both games they scored 6 runs in, were started by Kershaw. Matt Kemp is the stud in the Dodgers lineup while the #2 guy, Andre Either struggles mightly batting under .200 in July and .059 over the last 7 days. Ouch! Tony Gwynn Jr (lead off hitter) has been putting up decent numbers batting .333 in July and just a shade over that the last seven but Furcal (#2 spot) has negated that by batting .095 for the month. When 2 of your 4 hitters are batting under .100 for the month and under .065 the L7, that generally spells trouble.
In contrast, the Giants have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of the last 7 games, including the first two against the Dodgers. The top of the Giants order, 1-4, are all batting over .300 for the month of July and 3 of 4 batting over .300 the last 7 days. The number 5 hitter, Cody Ross, is at .270 for the month. Well above what the Dodgers are doing. The Giants also trader for utility infielder Jeff Keppinger yesterday from the Astros. Although not a major name, he is having a decent year at the plate and can help the Giants in some capacity.
This game should be very low scoring with 2 stud pitchers on the mound, but I am giving the edge to the Giants in this one, but it only warrants a 5* play. Good luck everyone and thanks again for reading.
Dodgers (Kershaw, 10-8, 2.44 ERA) @ Giants -$135 (Lincecum, 8-7, 2.99 ERA)
Only one game on the docket today that really piques my interest and the is a moneyline play on the Giants. The Giants have had the Dodgers number as of late, winning the first 2 games of the series in SF. The Giants as a team are 18-7 vs leftys this year while the Dodgers are 30-41 against rightys. Also, the Giants are 30-16 at home while the Dodgers are 19-28 on the road.
Kershaw has pitched 15 straight innings without giving up and ER although he did give up 4 unearned last game yet still getting the win vs AZ. Lincecum has given up only 1ER in each of his last two starts, clearly moving beyond his early season struggles. Kershaw and Lincecum have both been pitching extremely well as of late but the difference could be in the bullpen. Dodgers pen is not nearly as effective as the Giants, as evidence by last night where the Dodgers pen allowed the Giants to break the tie and the Brian Wilson came in to close the door on the struggling LA team. Dodgers have a pen ERA of 3.51 on the road while the Giants post a stingy 2.10 ERA at home. As a staff, the edge goes to SF, although Kershaw should be able to eat up some innings to prevent the pen from screwing things up.
As for the bats, Dodgers haven't had much pop, only putting up over 4 runs twice since early July. However, both games they scored 6 runs in, were started by Kershaw. Matt Kemp is the stud in the Dodgers lineup while the #2 guy, Andre Either struggles mightly batting under .200 in July and .059 over the last 7 days. Ouch! Tony Gwynn Jr (lead off hitter) has been putting up decent numbers batting .333 in July and just a shade over that the last seven but Furcal (#2 spot) has negated that by batting .095 for the month. When 2 of your 4 hitters are batting under .100 for the month and under .065 the L7, that generally spells trouble.
In contrast, the Giants have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of the last 7 games, including the first two against the Dodgers. The top of the Giants order, 1-4, are all batting over .300 for the month of July and 3 of 4 batting over .300 the last 7 days. The number 5 hitter, Cody Ross, is at .270 for the month. Well above what the Dodgers are doing. The Giants also trader for utility infielder Jeff Keppinger yesterday from the Astros. Although not a major name, he is having a decent year at the plate and can help the Giants in some capacity.
This game should be very low scoring with 2 stud pitchers on the mound, but I am giving the edge to the Giants in this one, but it only warrants a 5* play. Good luck everyone and thanks again for reading.
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