Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Big Plays on Big Games

I'm an avid college football fan with enjoys looking at the point spreads and over/unders of games for the coming week.  
This weeks main topic is Oregon -7 @ USC.  I understand that USC has had an extra week of preparation, Monte Kiffin is the defensive coordinator, and there is NFL talent all over the defensive side of the ball.  Also, Oregon tends to struggle when playing at USC.  The point spread is currently at 7 which signals that Oregon is in for a fight considering they have been absolutely jack-slapping their competition.
Personally, I think Oregon is going to run away with it.  The frenetic pace of their offense will tire out USC's defense and will cause all the inexperience in USC's defensive backfield to be exposed.
Offensively for USC, they are strong in the run and proficient in the pass with Matt Barkley at the helm.  But if Oregon jumps up by 14+ points, the run game becomes secondary and Barkley will be forced to prove himself against a fast moving Ducks defense.   This game is my favorite pick of the week taking Oregon -7 @ USC.

The second game I am interested in, is the Auburn-Ole Miss over/under of 60.5.
   Cam Newton of Auburn has been basically unstoppable the last few weeks. The Auburn defense, with the exception of LSU whose offensive is hot garbage, has been very porous through the air this season.  The Auburn-Arkansas game is a perfect example of that.  A 2nd string qb comes in and lights the Tigers up like a cheap Christmas tree.  This week Jeremiah Massoli is the opponent.  He is extremely capable as a runner and a passer but just needs more time to get used to Coach Houston Nutt's offensive system.  He is becoming better by the week, as is evident by the 300+ yards passing last week v Arkansas.
Now to Cam Newton.  The guy has just been a beast the last few weeks, throwing defenders aside like women and children on his way down the field.  The scary part is, he is no slouch as a throwing quarterback either.  The Ole Miss defense has been very susceptible to lots of yards through the air. Not quite as bad on the ground, but overall this is a less than stout defense in most areas.
Relating this to the over/under of 60.5;   Ole Miss has been giving up an average of over 30 points a game against less potent offenses this season.  Auburn is scoring almost 40 a game.  It seems to me, barring a let down, Auburn should post over 40 points again this weekend.  That leaves the Ole Miss offense to beat the Auburn defense for 3 td's or 21 points to cover the over.  Seems like a no-brainer to me, but Vegas has obviously set it at 60.5 for a reason.  Previous games have been lower scoring, but past years haven't had weak defense against monsters like Cam Newton and Massoli.
I see this game blowing by the over with out a problem.

Would love to hear feedback from anyone who actually reads this.  Will post about Cal @ Oregon St -2.5 and over/under of 52.5 later in the week if I can.  But for now, those are my two picks for the week,  Oregon -7 @ USC and Auburn @ Ole Miss over 60.5.