Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Been Busy
Been busy with the whole work thing so haven't had much time to post. I struggle with my last picks on Saturday going 1-2, with the Rays choking away a game to prevent another winning day. Yesterday Verlander and the Tigers and Weaver and the Angels both brought wins for me. Since I have been overly busy as of late, I am only going to post every couple of days til things slow down. Today I, there wasn't much out there that I really thought was worth analyzing so probably no post today. So the blog will be less frequent til football season due to my schedule. Thanks again for the read
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Saturday Matchup
Thursday's game didn't go as I had hoped, with the Yankees losing 2-1 against the Rays. 5* 1-1, 10*4-2, 20* 0-1 is where I stand right now. I should have stuck with my guy instinct on Thursday night and supported Verlander and the Tigers at a -$155 price. Talked myself out of a winner and right into a loser. Great. Fridays action, however, I was able to post a winner. I was unable to blog yesterday but still found a winner with the Atlanta Braves (Jurrjens) at -$115 at the Reds and Bronson Arroyo. With Jurrjens on the mound as only a slight favorite against a Cincy team that was in a hitting funk and a pitcher who couldn't keep people off the basepaths. I was able to personally get a winner but won't count it on my record here since I was unable to record it. Time to break the blog losing streak and get another winner today.
San Diego (Latos, 5-10, 4.02 ERA) at Philadelphia (Kendrick, 5-4, 3.34) -$140
A play on the Phillies moneyline is my first play for the day. Latos is not the same pitcher he was last year. He is still very young and has a lot of room to grow, but a veteran lineup like the Phillies should be able to knock him around a bit. The Phillies have been putting up solid offensive numbers too while going 6-2 over their last 8. In all 6 Phils victories, the have won by at least 2 runs. That stat makes me want to possibly play the runline, -1.5 at +$155 for Philly. However, my bad luck with runlines scares me off of it. Shane Victorino has also returned to the Phillies lineup to help give them an offensive boost. He has already had a couple games back and got his first hit last night against SD, a sign he might be getting back in his .300 hitting groove before he went down earlier this month. Latos has pitched well against teams that aren't great at the plate (SF, LA, Sea) but has been roughed up against more experienced, better hitting teams (Bos, Col). SD does have a very solid bullpen, however, anchored by closer Heath Bell. They did trot out 3 relievers last night though, which gives Philly an edge by already seeing those pitchers. Where as Hamels went 8 and Madsen came in to close the door for Philly.
As for SD, they were able to put up some runs against Florida last series but I'm not sure that will carry over to this series, as evident by the 3-1 loss last night to Philly. Chases Headley and Jesus Guzman both have respectable averages, but everyone else in the Padres line up struggles to get on base. They are facing a pitcher in Kendrick who has been very respectable when he has been called upon to start, sporting a 3.60 ERA for July. Kendrick is a pitcher who doesn't walk many and makes teams put the ball in play, not exactly SD's strongest facet. Philly doesn't have as strong of bullpen, but as long as Kendrick can log 6-7 innings, there shouldn't be a worry.
With Philly cruising at home to a 5-2 record on Saturdays, I like the Phils for a 5* play on the moneyline. This was originally a 10* play but Ryan Howard is not in the starting lineup.
Detroit (Penny, 7-6, 4.47 ERA) +$110 at Minnesota (Baker, 7-5, 3.01 ERA)
The second play I like today is the Detroit Tigers moneyline as an underdog. Detroit has roughed up Minnesota in the first two games of the series although Detroit did have the starting pitching advantage in both of those games. Today's starters, Penny and Baker, both bring a different story to the table. Penny had struggle mightily for the Tigers to start the year, but has posted a solid run his last 5 starts, only giving 4 runs one time in 6 innings of work He is 2-0 in July with a 3.60 ERA in 3 starts. You can pencil him in for at least 6 innings which takes some pressure off the middle relievers who are not very good for Detroit. Opposing Penny is Scott Baker, who was lights out before going on the DL 3 weeks ago. Before the injury he was pitching well against TB and had shut down the Dodgers his previous start. I am betting on Baker having some rust against a hot Detroit lineup.
Detroit has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games, including the first two against the Twins. The Twins have only gone over 4 once in the last 7 and that was against a struggling Cleveland pitcher, certainly nothing to write home about. One big problem for the Twins has been the power outage from Joe Mauer. Although his average is climbing, he just doesn't have the power back yet after his knee injuries. Jason Kubel is back for the Twins after missing significant time and had 2 walks and a hit. Not a bad return, but not banking on that performance two days in a row. Detroit is anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both are raking right now and have hit Scott Baker very well. Detroits team average against Baker is about .330, although that can be somewhat misleading considering they play every year and someone like Magglio Ordonez is not the hitter he was 2 or 3 years ago. Overall though, I think the Tigers just have too much firepower and have had the Twins number as of late.
Take Detroit +$110 on the moneyline for 10*.
Tampa Bay (Niemann, 4-4, 3.94 ERA) -$120 at Kansas City (Francis, 3-11, 4.62 ERA)
Tampa Bay on the moneyline is the play here. Niemann has been pitching very well against very potent competition as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA in July in 21.1 innings against NY, Bos and STL while going 2-0. Francis has not been nearly as sharp but is still pitching ok. He posts a 3.72 ERA in July but KC has lost his 6 starts and 7 of last 8. Francis has not gotten great run support all year, while Niemann has had solid to good run support, even if he only has a 4-4 record. Niemann had a long stint on the DL earlier this year and returned in mid June. He has only given up more than 1 ER once since coming of the DL in 5 starts. Very promising start.
Kansas City has been playing better as of late, but it has been against lesser competition, winning 3 in a row against 3 shaky pitchers (Peavy, Danks, and Wade Davis in first start back). Tampa has struggled going 2-7 in the last 9 but have all been very tight games against the BoSox and and Yankees. KC is getting good all around production but I think Niemann can shut them down. Francis has not pitched that great against poor teams, so the Rays should welcome the chance to see some lesser pitching.
Due to KC hammering them last night, I am only putting a 5* on the Tampa Bay moneyline.
3 games today, hopefully coming away with 3 big winners. Good luck and thanks again for reading.
San Diego (Latos, 5-10, 4.02 ERA) at Philadelphia (Kendrick, 5-4, 3.34) -$140
A play on the Phillies moneyline is my first play for the day. Latos is not the same pitcher he was last year. He is still very young and has a lot of room to grow, but a veteran lineup like the Phillies should be able to knock him around a bit. The Phillies have been putting up solid offensive numbers too while going 6-2 over their last 8. In all 6 Phils victories, the have won by at least 2 runs. That stat makes me want to possibly play the runline, -1.5 at +$155 for Philly. However, my bad luck with runlines scares me off of it. Shane Victorino has also returned to the Phillies lineup to help give them an offensive boost. He has already had a couple games back and got his first hit last night against SD, a sign he might be getting back in his .300 hitting groove before he went down earlier this month. Latos has pitched well against teams that aren't great at the plate (SF, LA, Sea) but has been roughed up against more experienced, better hitting teams (Bos, Col). SD does have a very solid bullpen, however, anchored by closer Heath Bell. They did trot out 3 relievers last night though, which gives Philly an edge by already seeing those pitchers. Where as Hamels went 8 and Madsen came in to close the door for Philly.
As for SD, they were able to put up some runs against Florida last series but I'm not sure that will carry over to this series, as evident by the 3-1 loss last night to Philly. Chases Headley and Jesus Guzman both have respectable averages, but everyone else in the Padres line up struggles to get on base. They are facing a pitcher in Kendrick who has been very respectable when he has been called upon to start, sporting a 3.60 ERA for July. Kendrick is a pitcher who doesn't walk many and makes teams put the ball in play, not exactly SD's strongest facet. Philly doesn't have as strong of bullpen, but as long as Kendrick can log 6-7 innings, there shouldn't be a worry.
With Philly cruising at home to a 5-2 record on Saturdays, I like the Phils for a 5* play on the moneyline. This was originally a 10* play but Ryan Howard is not in the starting lineup.
Detroit (Penny, 7-6, 4.47 ERA) +$110 at Minnesota (Baker, 7-5, 3.01 ERA)
The second play I like today is the Detroit Tigers moneyline as an underdog. Detroit has roughed up Minnesota in the first two games of the series although Detroit did have the starting pitching advantage in both of those games. Today's starters, Penny and Baker, both bring a different story to the table. Penny had struggle mightily for the Tigers to start the year, but has posted a solid run his last 5 starts, only giving 4 runs one time in 6 innings of work He is 2-0 in July with a 3.60 ERA in 3 starts. You can pencil him in for at least 6 innings which takes some pressure off the middle relievers who are not very good for Detroit. Opposing Penny is Scott Baker, who was lights out before going on the DL 3 weeks ago. Before the injury he was pitching well against TB and had shut down the Dodgers his previous start. I am betting on Baker having some rust against a hot Detroit lineup.
Detroit has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 5 games, including the first two against the Twins. The Twins have only gone over 4 once in the last 7 and that was against a struggling Cleveland pitcher, certainly nothing to write home about. One big problem for the Twins has been the power outage from Joe Mauer. Although his average is climbing, he just doesn't have the power back yet after his knee injuries. Jason Kubel is back for the Twins after missing significant time and had 2 walks and a hit. Not a bad return, but not banking on that performance two days in a row. Detroit is anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both are raking right now and have hit Scott Baker very well. Detroits team average against Baker is about .330, although that can be somewhat misleading considering they play every year and someone like Magglio Ordonez is not the hitter he was 2 or 3 years ago. Overall though, I think the Tigers just have too much firepower and have had the Twins number as of late.
Take Detroit +$110 on the moneyline for 10*.
Tampa Bay (Niemann, 4-4, 3.94 ERA) -$120 at Kansas City (Francis, 3-11, 4.62 ERA)
Tampa Bay on the moneyline is the play here. Niemann has been pitching very well against very potent competition as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA in July in 21.1 innings against NY, Bos and STL while going 2-0. Francis has not been nearly as sharp but is still pitching ok. He posts a 3.72 ERA in July but KC has lost his 6 starts and 7 of last 8. Francis has not gotten great run support all year, while Niemann has had solid to good run support, even if he only has a 4-4 record. Niemann had a long stint on the DL earlier this year and returned in mid June. He has only given up more than 1 ER once since coming of the DL in 5 starts. Very promising start.
Kansas City has been playing better as of late, but it has been against lesser competition, winning 3 in a row against 3 shaky pitchers (Peavy, Danks, and Wade Davis in first start back). Tampa has struggled going 2-7 in the last 9 but have all been very tight games against the BoSox and and Yankees. KC is getting good all around production but I think Niemann can shut them down. Francis has not pitched that great against poor teams, so the Rays should welcome the chance to see some lesser pitching.
Due to KC hammering them last night, I am only putting a 5* on the Tampa Bay moneyline.
3 games today, hopefully coming away with 3 big winners. Good luck and thanks again for reading.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Thursdays Pick
Wednesday's game went about as expected, other than the Giants didn't win. Pitchers duel with 2 average or below hitting clubs. Lincecum pitched well, but Kershaw was an absolute beast, striking out 12 in 8 innings of 3 hit ball. The over/under was set at 5.5 runs and had crossed my mind to bet the under but 5.5 total runs is just one soft inning from being a loss. So, another 5* loss puts my record at 5* 1-1, 10* 4-1 and 20* 0-1. Tomorrow is another busy travel day, so I am posting Thursday's winner (hopefully) tonight. This losing shit sucks, time to get back on the right side of the ledger.
Yankees -$140 (Sabathia, 14-4, 2.64 ERA) at Rays (Shields, 8-8, 2.60 ERA)
A moneyline play on the Yankees is what I'm banking on tomorrow. This is the last game of the series between these two division rivals. The Rays have struggle during their last 3 series (@ NY, v Bos, v NY) and the clear sign is the level of competition they are playing. The Yankees, on the flip side, have been playing decent despite A-Fraud being out and Big Tex Mark Texiera forgetting how to hit the damn ball. The Yankees bullpen, although not stellar, does have Robertson and Mo Rivera to lock things down when the games starting winding down. Unfortunately for TB, their bullpen does not have a real go to guy. The have a collection of pitchers who can each get the job done on a given night, but no guarantees the same guy shows up 2 nights in a row.
A big (literally) advantage the Yankees have is CC Sabathia though. He has been lights out while allowing only 1 ER in the month of July in 24 innings. The Yanks have gone 11-1 in CC last 12 starts. Not too shabby. He has also been given great run support, scoring less than 4 only once but that was against James Shields and TB on July 10th, a 1-0 victory. Shields started out red-hot for the Rays but they have lost his last 4 starts while scoring only 10 runs in those 4 games. Shields was roughed up at home for a 6 spot in 6 innings of work against the BoSox his last time out. Boston has been hitting more consistently than the Yankees but they still can't be overlooked. The Rays stole their 1 win for the series Tuesday night as I think the Yankees behind CC beat them in the finale. I would strongly look to the runline ( Yankees 1.5 @ +$130) but I have been absolutely dogshit when betting the runline. 10* on the Yankees moneyline.
Runlines
A little side not about runlines. To bet a the runline, you get +/- 1.5 runs depending on which side you choose. The Yankees tomorrow seem like a perfect candidate to play it but my luck has been poor with it. Runlines seem almost like a sucker bet unless you really know what you are doing. I'm still a rookie in baseball wagering but with experience I realize that they are a little above me yet. Nice payoffs, but that 1 run means a lot, especially if you are betting the home team and could lose an AB in the bottom of 9 if they have the lead. However, much like the teaser in football, there is a home for. I just need to find it. Once again, good luck and appreciate taking the time to read this.
Yankees -$140 (Sabathia, 14-4, 2.64 ERA) at Rays (Shields, 8-8, 2.60 ERA)
A moneyline play on the Yankees is what I'm banking on tomorrow. This is the last game of the series between these two division rivals. The Rays have struggle during their last 3 series (@ NY, v Bos, v NY) and the clear sign is the level of competition they are playing. The Yankees, on the flip side, have been playing decent despite A-Fraud being out and Big Tex Mark Texiera forgetting how to hit the damn ball. The Yankees bullpen, although not stellar, does have Robertson and Mo Rivera to lock things down when the games starting winding down. Unfortunately for TB, their bullpen does not have a real go to guy. The have a collection of pitchers who can each get the job done on a given night, but no guarantees the same guy shows up 2 nights in a row.
A big (literally) advantage the Yankees have is CC Sabathia though. He has been lights out while allowing only 1 ER in the month of July in 24 innings. The Yanks have gone 11-1 in CC last 12 starts. Not too shabby. He has also been given great run support, scoring less than 4 only once but that was against James Shields and TB on July 10th, a 1-0 victory. Shields started out red-hot for the Rays but they have lost his last 4 starts while scoring only 10 runs in those 4 games. Shields was roughed up at home for a 6 spot in 6 innings of work against the BoSox his last time out. Boston has been hitting more consistently than the Yankees but they still can't be overlooked. The Rays stole their 1 win for the series Tuesday night as I think the Yankees behind CC beat them in the finale. I would strongly look to the runline ( Yankees 1.5 @ +$130) but I have been absolutely dogshit when betting the runline. 10* on the Yankees moneyline.
Runlines
A little side not about runlines. To bet a the runline, you get +/- 1.5 runs depending on which side you choose. The Yankees tomorrow seem like a perfect candidate to play it but my luck has been poor with it. Runlines seem almost like a sucker bet unless you really know what you are doing. I'm still a rookie in baseball wagering but with experience I realize that they are a little above me yet. Nice payoffs, but that 1 run means a lot, especially if you are betting the home team and could lose an AB in the bottom of 9 if they have the lead. However, much like the teaser in football, there is a home for. I just need to find it. Once again, good luck and appreciate taking the time to read this.
Back to Reality
Yesterday was a rough one, losing Boston on a 20* play and the Indians losing a 10* play as well. Boston was within striking distance til the very end when Baltimore blew it open whereas the Indians had the lead going into the bottom of 9 when the Tribes closer Chris Perez decides to puke all over himself and give up the game. Frustrating. Generally I would have only posted a 10* play on both games, but having some money in the bank I decided to up the ante with a 20* play. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. On to today's games and back to the winning side of the ledger. Record still stands at 20* 0-1, 10* 4-1, 5* 1-0 for an approximate total of +10* ( Wins - Losses - Juice = Profit).
Dodgers (Kershaw, 10-8, 2.44 ERA) @ Giants -$135 (Lincecum, 8-7, 2.99 ERA)
Only one game on the docket today that really piques my interest and the is a moneyline play on the Giants. The Giants have had the Dodgers number as of late, winning the first 2 games of the series in SF. The Giants as a team are 18-7 vs leftys this year while the Dodgers are 30-41 against rightys. Also, the Giants are 30-16 at home while the Dodgers are 19-28 on the road.
Kershaw has pitched 15 straight innings without giving up and ER although he did give up 4 unearned last game yet still getting the win vs AZ. Lincecum has given up only 1ER in each of his last two starts, clearly moving beyond his early season struggles. Kershaw and Lincecum have both been pitching extremely well as of late but the difference could be in the bullpen. Dodgers pen is not nearly as effective as the Giants, as evidence by last night where the Dodgers pen allowed the Giants to break the tie and the Brian Wilson came in to close the door on the struggling LA team. Dodgers have a pen ERA of 3.51 on the road while the Giants post a stingy 2.10 ERA at home. As a staff, the edge goes to SF, although Kershaw should be able to eat up some innings to prevent the pen from screwing things up.
As for the bats, Dodgers haven't had much pop, only putting up over 4 runs twice since early July. However, both games they scored 6 runs in, were started by Kershaw. Matt Kemp is the stud in the Dodgers lineup while the #2 guy, Andre Either struggles mightly batting under .200 in July and .059 over the last 7 days. Ouch! Tony Gwynn Jr (lead off hitter) has been putting up decent numbers batting .333 in July and just a shade over that the last seven but Furcal (#2 spot) has negated that by batting .095 for the month. When 2 of your 4 hitters are batting under .100 for the month and under .065 the L7, that generally spells trouble.
In contrast, the Giants have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of the last 7 games, including the first two against the Dodgers. The top of the Giants order, 1-4, are all batting over .300 for the month of July and 3 of 4 batting over .300 the last 7 days. The number 5 hitter, Cody Ross, is at .270 for the month. Well above what the Dodgers are doing. The Giants also trader for utility infielder Jeff Keppinger yesterday from the Astros. Although not a major name, he is having a decent year at the plate and can help the Giants in some capacity.
This game should be very low scoring with 2 stud pitchers on the mound, but I am giving the edge to the Giants in this one, but it only warrants a 5* play. Good luck everyone and thanks again for reading.
Dodgers (Kershaw, 10-8, 2.44 ERA) @ Giants -$135 (Lincecum, 8-7, 2.99 ERA)
Only one game on the docket today that really piques my interest and the is a moneyline play on the Giants. The Giants have had the Dodgers number as of late, winning the first 2 games of the series in SF. The Giants as a team are 18-7 vs leftys this year while the Dodgers are 30-41 against rightys. Also, the Giants are 30-16 at home while the Dodgers are 19-28 on the road.
Kershaw has pitched 15 straight innings without giving up and ER although he did give up 4 unearned last game yet still getting the win vs AZ. Lincecum has given up only 1ER in each of his last two starts, clearly moving beyond his early season struggles. Kershaw and Lincecum have both been pitching extremely well as of late but the difference could be in the bullpen. Dodgers pen is not nearly as effective as the Giants, as evidence by last night where the Dodgers pen allowed the Giants to break the tie and the Brian Wilson came in to close the door on the struggling LA team. Dodgers have a pen ERA of 3.51 on the road while the Giants post a stingy 2.10 ERA at home. As a staff, the edge goes to SF, although Kershaw should be able to eat up some innings to prevent the pen from screwing things up.
As for the bats, Dodgers haven't had much pop, only putting up over 4 runs twice since early July. However, both games they scored 6 runs in, were started by Kershaw. Matt Kemp is the stud in the Dodgers lineup while the #2 guy, Andre Either struggles mightly batting under .200 in July and .059 over the last 7 days. Ouch! Tony Gwynn Jr (lead off hitter) has been putting up decent numbers batting .333 in July and just a shade over that the last seven but Furcal (#2 spot) has negated that by batting .095 for the month. When 2 of your 4 hitters are batting under .100 for the month and under .065 the L7, that generally spells trouble.
In contrast, the Giants have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of the last 7 games, including the first two against the Dodgers. The top of the Giants order, 1-4, are all batting over .300 for the month of July and 3 of 4 batting over .300 the last 7 days. The number 5 hitter, Cody Ross, is at .270 for the month. Well above what the Dodgers are doing. The Giants also trader for utility infielder Jeff Keppinger yesterday from the Astros. Although not a major name, he is having a decent year at the plate and can help the Giants in some capacity.
This game should be very low scoring with 2 stud pitchers on the mound, but I am giving the edge to the Giants in this one, but it only warrants a 5* play. Good luck everyone and thanks again for reading.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Ridin' High
After another 2-0 sweep yesterday, that leaves my record at 10* 4-0 and 5* 1-0. Can't complain about that one bit. At any rate, I have two more selections today to hopefully keep the streak alive
Boston -$115 (Weiland, 0-0, 13. 50 ERA) at Baltimore (Guthrie 3-13, 4.50 ERA)
A moneyline play on Boston should be a winner tonight. Boston has been absolutely mashing the ball, as showcased last night when they hung 15 on Baltimore. Big Papi is out for the BoSox but Carl Crawford returned to the lineup after a stint on the DL. Baltimore has been hitting the ball decently, but it has only been after their opponents have jumped out to big leads and let off the gas a little bit, as exhibited last night.
The pitching matchup is where the key to this game lies. Kyle Weiland is making only his second career start in place of the injured Jon Lester. His first start, against Baltimore, he was shelled for 6 runs early in the game. He settled down nicely, but then plunked Vlad Guerrero and was ejected. Terry Francona really likes Weiland, however, and speaks very highly of him, saying he was a bit nervous to open the game but should be fine the 2nd time around. Not much of a track record to look at with Weiland which makes him a wild card. Jeremy Guthrie, however, brings his gas can to the bump to burn the place down every 5th day. He appeared in relief against Boston right before the ASB and pitched OK but the Sox still won the game. Otherwise he consistently gives up 4 + runs in 6 or less innings (4 of last 5 starts). Also, with Kevin Gregg out (suspension), the O's bullpen gets even weaker, which boasts a 4.39 ERA at home. Bostons bullpen is almost a full run better at 3.59 ERA for the pen.
Basically, Baltimore can't keep anyone in the yard, and Boston has no problem putting runs on the board. Weiland is definitely going to be the difference maker in this game. If Tito (Terry Francona) has faith in, why the hell shouldn't I? With that in mind and the hot streak going, I'm going to bump up the action and make this a 20* play.
Cleveland +$115 ( Masterson, 8-6, 2.40 ERA) at Minnesota (Liriano, 6-7, 4.76 ERA).
A moneyline play on Cleveland seems to be the right move here. The Tribe took both games of a double header yesterday from the Twins on an extremely warm day in the Twin Cities. Both teams had last minute pitching changes for their starters but Minnesota could not get their sticks going, even against Fausto Carmona who has been atrocious this year. The Indians did lose Grady Sizemore to the DL, but he was not he contributor he used to be, batting well below .250 this year. Neither Cleveland or Minnesota has been tearing up the basepaths as of late, although Cleveland has had better numbers over the last week. The Tribe has also been on the road since the ASB while the Twins have been at Target Field.
I believe it will boil down to who is pitching better tonight. I believe Masterson, who has pitched very well as of late and against better competition, will be victorious. Liriano has been pitching better his last few starts, although against a poor KC team and a terrible road team in the Brewers. Masterson has taken down the Yankees, Baltimore and Cincy in his last 3 starts. Masterson has also given up over 3 ER once since early June, but it was last game in an 8-4 win over the Orioles 5 days ago. The Cleveland bullpen has been very solid this year while the Twins have struggle to find a rhythm from the pen. Quick note about the Twins hitting woes, Mauer and Cuddyer are both over .290 while the rest of the team is .265 and lower. Not exactly an offensive threat.
All of these factors contribute to the Tribe stealing another game at Target Field. However, with the high heat possibly being a factor, I give this play a 10* rating.
On a side note, teams like Baltimore and Cleveland whom I just broke down a few days ago, reference back to an older blog if you are curious about them. I will try to put more info on the current blog when possible, but it gets redundant breaking down the same teams day after day. Especially in baseball with 3 or 4 game series and not much turnover, other than starting pitching, from day to day. Hope you enjoyed the blog and good luck. Thanks for reading.
Boston -$115 (Weiland, 0-0, 13. 50 ERA) at Baltimore (Guthrie 3-13, 4.50 ERA)
A moneyline play on Boston should be a winner tonight. Boston has been absolutely mashing the ball, as showcased last night when they hung 15 on Baltimore. Big Papi is out for the BoSox but Carl Crawford returned to the lineup after a stint on the DL. Baltimore has been hitting the ball decently, but it has only been after their opponents have jumped out to big leads and let off the gas a little bit, as exhibited last night.
The pitching matchup is where the key to this game lies. Kyle Weiland is making only his second career start in place of the injured Jon Lester. His first start, against Baltimore, he was shelled for 6 runs early in the game. He settled down nicely, but then plunked Vlad Guerrero and was ejected. Terry Francona really likes Weiland, however, and speaks very highly of him, saying he was a bit nervous to open the game but should be fine the 2nd time around. Not much of a track record to look at with Weiland which makes him a wild card. Jeremy Guthrie, however, brings his gas can to the bump to burn the place down every 5th day. He appeared in relief against Boston right before the ASB and pitched OK but the Sox still won the game. Otherwise he consistently gives up 4 + runs in 6 or less innings (4 of last 5 starts). Also, with Kevin Gregg out (suspension), the O's bullpen gets even weaker, which boasts a 4.39 ERA at home. Bostons bullpen is almost a full run better at 3.59 ERA for the pen.
Basically, Baltimore can't keep anyone in the yard, and Boston has no problem putting runs on the board. Weiland is definitely going to be the difference maker in this game. If Tito (Terry Francona) has faith in, why the hell shouldn't I? With that in mind and the hot streak going, I'm going to bump up the action and make this a 20* play.
Cleveland +$115 ( Masterson, 8-6, 2.40 ERA) at Minnesota (Liriano, 6-7, 4.76 ERA).
A moneyline play on Cleveland seems to be the right move here. The Tribe took both games of a double header yesterday from the Twins on an extremely warm day in the Twin Cities. Both teams had last minute pitching changes for their starters but Minnesota could not get their sticks going, even against Fausto Carmona who has been atrocious this year. The Indians did lose Grady Sizemore to the DL, but he was not he contributor he used to be, batting well below .250 this year. Neither Cleveland or Minnesota has been tearing up the basepaths as of late, although Cleveland has had better numbers over the last week. The Tribe has also been on the road since the ASB while the Twins have been at Target Field.
I believe it will boil down to who is pitching better tonight. I believe Masterson, who has pitched very well as of late and against better competition, will be victorious. Liriano has been pitching better his last few starts, although against a poor KC team and a terrible road team in the Brewers. Masterson has taken down the Yankees, Baltimore and Cincy in his last 3 starts. Masterson has also given up over 3 ER once since early June, but it was last game in an 8-4 win over the Orioles 5 days ago. The Cleveland bullpen has been very solid this year while the Twins have struggle to find a rhythm from the pen. Quick note about the Twins hitting woes, Mauer and Cuddyer are both over .290 while the rest of the team is .265 and lower. Not exactly an offensive threat.
All of these factors contribute to the Tribe stealing another game at Target Field. However, with the high heat possibly being a factor, I give this play a 10* rating.
On a side note, teams like Baltimore and Cleveland whom I just broke down a few days ago, reference back to an older blog if you are curious about them. I will try to put more info on the current blog when possible, but it gets redundant breaking down the same teams day after day. Especially in baseball with 3 or 4 game series and not much turnover, other than starting pitching, from day to day. Hope you enjoyed the blog and good luck. Thanks for reading.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Monday's Quick Picks
After a win yesterday in which the Marlins broke a tie late in the game to down the Cubs, the Gambling Gods once again smiled down on me. Could this be a heater? Don't want to jinx anything but it sure is nice to get the bounces going your way. Enough about yesterday, time to move on to today's picks.
Chi Sox -$126 @ KC.
The moneyline play on Chicago seems to be the obvious play here today. Mark Buehrle (6-5, 3.42 ERA) is the starter for the Sox and has been pitching very well as of late. The Sox have won 8 of his last 10 starts, a very nice stat. He did pitch poorly vs KC in April, but his whole month of April was pretty dismal so I don't take much stock in that start. Not to mention KC is 8-17 vs leftys this season, Buehrle should have a solid outing.
The White Sox have also had pretty solid bats as of late, roughing up Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers for 16 runs in 3 games against good competition (2-1 record). For the season, Adam Dunn has been a bust. A good place to look for a turnaround would be against KC starter Kyle Davies (1-8, 7.74 ERA). Davies has not pitched well at all this year as is evident by his poor record and enormous ERA. His last 3 starts which stretch back to May, his ERA is over 10. I don't see a reason for the Sox bats to cool off against this struggling righty.
As for the KC side of things, the offense has been putting up very few runs. They haven't put up over 5 in 10 days and that was against a struggling youngster for Detroit. They do have a few decent hitters in Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler, but the rest of the lineup lacks. Not to mention a starter with an ERA in the clouds, and this should be easy work for Mark Buehrle and the South Side Sox.
10* play
Washington -$114 at Houston.
Another moneyline play here on the Washington Nationals and Jason Marquis (7-4, 4.05 ERA) at Houston starting Jordan Lyles (0-4, 4.60 ERA). The Nationals hit the ball very well against tough Atlanta pitching in a pitching park over the weekend. Jordan Lyles has been very inconsistent and gives up the long fly balls that can be dangerous in Minute Maid park which is very hitter friendly. Marquis has struggled as of late but the Houston lineup has struggle all season. Remarkably, the Astros are 17-49 against right handed starters, which is terrible by any standard. It basically boils down to who is hitting better and who is pitching worse. I like the Nationals in this one but only with a 5* play.
I know not much commentary today, but that's why its Monday's Quick Picks. Good luck to everyone and hopefully another winning day..
Chi Sox -$126 @ KC.
The moneyline play on Chicago seems to be the obvious play here today. Mark Buehrle (6-5, 3.42 ERA) is the starter for the Sox and has been pitching very well as of late. The Sox have won 8 of his last 10 starts, a very nice stat. He did pitch poorly vs KC in April, but his whole month of April was pretty dismal so I don't take much stock in that start. Not to mention KC is 8-17 vs leftys this season, Buehrle should have a solid outing.
The White Sox have also had pretty solid bats as of late, roughing up Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers for 16 runs in 3 games against good competition (2-1 record). For the season, Adam Dunn has been a bust. A good place to look for a turnaround would be against KC starter Kyle Davies (1-8, 7.74 ERA). Davies has not pitched well at all this year as is evident by his poor record and enormous ERA. His last 3 starts which stretch back to May, his ERA is over 10. I don't see a reason for the Sox bats to cool off against this struggling righty.
As for the KC side of things, the offense has been putting up very few runs. They haven't put up over 5 in 10 days and that was against a struggling youngster for Detroit. They do have a few decent hitters in Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler, but the rest of the lineup lacks. Not to mention a starter with an ERA in the clouds, and this should be easy work for Mark Buehrle and the South Side Sox.
10* play
Washington -$114 at Houston.
Another moneyline play here on the Washington Nationals and Jason Marquis (7-4, 4.05 ERA) at Houston starting Jordan Lyles (0-4, 4.60 ERA). The Nationals hit the ball very well against tough Atlanta pitching in a pitching park over the weekend. Jordan Lyles has been very inconsistent and gives up the long fly balls that can be dangerous in Minute Maid park which is very hitter friendly. Marquis has struggled as of late but the Houston lineup has struggle all season. Remarkably, the Astros are 17-49 against right handed starters, which is terrible by any standard. It basically boils down to who is hitting better and who is pitching worse. I like the Nationals in this one but only with a 5* play.
I know not much commentary today, but that's why its Monday's Quick Picks. Good luck to everyone and hopefully another winning day..
Travel Day
Much like the baseball schedule of teams, Monday is a travel day for me so probably won't do much for updating today other that the record, which stands at 3-0 on 10* plays. I will see if I can post anything before first pitch but very doubtful.
Record 10* -- 3-0
Record 10* -- 3-0
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Nice Start
Yesterday was my first blog back and went 2-0 on my two 10* star plays. The Rangers won 5-1 for the moneyline win but the Cleveland-Baltimore game took all the way to the top of the 9th to cover that game. The Indians put up 3 for the cover. Gambling gods were shining down yesterday so can't complain.
Only a single game out there that really catches my eye,a moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 @ Cubs. The Marlins have been playing exceptionally well since the new "old" manager Jack McKeon came back to right the ship. Marlins have gone 7-1 in their last 8 while the Cubs have struggled to 3-9 the last 12.
The Marlins listed started today is Chris Volstad (5-8, 5.40 ERA). Volstad's numbers are actually very deceiving. Since June 1, he has pitched very well with the exception of 2 games against division foe Philadelphia, in which he was absolutely shelled. This Cubs team, however, is not close to the Philadelphia team that has destroyed him this season. Volstad has not given up more than 3 ER since June with the exception of the Phillies. One facet to Volstads game that will help him in the friendly confines of Wrigley is his ability to get ground ball outs.
These teams have been going in two different directions lately and the offensive numbers speak highly to that. The Cubs have put up over 5 runs twice since the beginning of July, while the Marlins have only put up less than 5 every game with the exception of Fridays game against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster, a 2-1 loss. Todays starting pitcher for the Cubs, Randy Wells (1-3, 6.80 ERA), doesn't appear to be the man to slow down these red hot Marlins. Wells has only 1 quality start in the last two and a half months. That was a month ago at Wrigley against a poor road team in Milwaukee. He has given up at least 4 runs in every start since then, although he does manage to log about 6 innings. Along with Wells woes, the Cubs bullpen is in major flux with closer Carlos Marmol being demoted after blowing his 7th save of the year.
The Marlins have already won 2 of 3 in this series, the lone loss being Dempster's game on Friday. The Cubs continued their pre ASB slide by getting hammered 13-3. My only concern is the Cubs are 7-1 following a 10-run loss this year. I would say that is a good stat, but this is the 9th time the Cubs have lost by double digits. Volstad will continue to pitch well against teams not named the Phillies and Wells will have no answer for the Marlins.
So my play today is a 10* moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 at Cubs.
Record-- 10* 2-0
Only a single game out there that really catches my eye,a moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 @ Cubs. The Marlins have been playing exceptionally well since the new "old" manager Jack McKeon came back to right the ship. Marlins have gone 7-1 in their last 8 while the Cubs have struggled to 3-9 the last 12.
The Marlins listed started today is Chris Volstad (5-8, 5.40 ERA). Volstad's numbers are actually very deceiving. Since June 1, he has pitched very well with the exception of 2 games against division foe Philadelphia, in which he was absolutely shelled. This Cubs team, however, is not close to the Philadelphia team that has destroyed him this season. Volstad has not given up more than 3 ER since June with the exception of the Phillies. One facet to Volstads game that will help him in the friendly confines of Wrigley is his ability to get ground ball outs.
These teams have been going in two different directions lately and the offensive numbers speak highly to that. The Cubs have put up over 5 runs twice since the beginning of July, while the Marlins have only put up less than 5 every game with the exception of Fridays game against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster, a 2-1 loss. Todays starting pitcher for the Cubs, Randy Wells (1-3, 6.80 ERA), doesn't appear to be the man to slow down these red hot Marlins. Wells has only 1 quality start in the last two and a half months. That was a month ago at Wrigley against a poor road team in Milwaukee. He has given up at least 4 runs in every start since then, although he does manage to log about 6 innings. Along with Wells woes, the Cubs bullpen is in major flux with closer Carlos Marmol being demoted after blowing his 7th save of the year.
The Marlins have already won 2 of 3 in this series, the lone loss being Dempster's game on Friday. The Cubs continued their pre ASB slide by getting hammered 13-3. My only concern is the Cubs are 7-1 following a 10-run loss this year. I would say that is a good stat, but this is the 9th time the Cubs have lost by double digits. Volstad will continue to pitch well against teams not named the Phillies and Wells will have no answer for the Marlins.
So my play today is a 10* moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 at Cubs.
Record-- 10* 2-0
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Back in the saddle...
So after not doing this blog for a long time, not that any reads it anyways, I've decided to come back to try and make this a daily blog about the world of sports betting. The goal is to try to post before each days action starts or at least the games I want to comment on begin. As it gets closer to football season, I will be doing some college previews, and once the season begins, 90% of this blog will be dedicated to football with a little baseball and basketball mixed in when it warrants.
A little bit on the format of the blog. My picks will be given in either 5, 10 or 20 point selections. 5 being the weakest, 20 being the strongest plays. I also hope to keep a running tally on here. Like I said, I understand very few people read this but I am basically doing this anyways, so might as well write it down so I have something to go back on. Enough of that stuff and on to the games.
Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) @ Baltimore Orioles (Simon) 6pm CDT -- Over 9.5 total - 10* play
This is the 3rd game of this series with Cleveland in control 2-0. Baltimore did show some signs of life last night but putting up 5 but once again, couldn't keep Cleveland in check and lost 6-5. Cleveland on the other hand, has had hot bats these first 2 games since the All Star break putting up 14 runs in 2 games.
Starting for the Indians tonight is Carlos Carrasco who is a RHP with an 8-6 record and 4.28 ERA on the year. He has posted an impressive 2.58 ERA on the road this year but his last 3 games (2 h, 1 A) he has a monstrous ERA of 8.36. Before that stretch he pitched very well in June but that was a long time ago in the world of pitchers. Still young (24), I feel the season and batters are catching up to him. He has a very good fastball and keeps his walks down which is a negative when looking going over 9.5 but like I said, has struggled mightily as of late. As for the Baltimore's hitters, they are missing Luke Scott and Vlad Guerrero which are two important components. However, they still have been able to put up 9 runs in 2 games against the Tribe. ALso, Baltimore has several veteran players on their team who are solid fastball hitters. If they jump on Carrasco early, it could spell a lot of runs.
As for Baltimore's pitcher, Alfredo Simon (1-2, 4.85 ERA) has been primarily used out of the pen. A journeyman at age 30, he has been rocked in the month of July pitching 9 innings and giving up 8 ER. Not a lot of walks, just getting shelled with hits for the most part. Sure his last 2 games were at Bos and at Tex which helped to balloon that ERA but if the O's had more confidence in him, they wouldn't use him as a spot starter. Simon also has some sort of legal obligation he must go back to the Dominican Republic to deal with on Sunday according to reports, so if his mind is away from the game it wouldn't be a total shocker. This is also only his 2nd start of the year and 2nd since April 2009. Simon has pitched much better at home this year but he has been put in positions where the game has already been decided yet someone needs to finish the game. Not exactly a ringing endorsement from a team on the ropes. Also, 2 Baltimore relievers are facing suspension to an already dismal bullpen.
Cleveland had struggled at the plate before the ASB but have since found life against the spiraling O's. Asdrubal Cabrera has been an absolute monster with big and timely hits for a young SS. Grady Sizemore even decided to join in the party last night with a HR. The bottom of the order has struggled but have still found a way to sneak in a run here and there.
As for trends, the Indians have gone over the total in 5 of last their last 7 while the Orioles have gone 9 of 11 games over the total while losing 10 of those games. While a moneyline play on the Indians could be warranted with the struggles of the Orioles as of late, I think the Over is a better play. Both pitchers have been getting shelled as of late and both teams do have some "pop" in their bats.
Texas Rangers (Wilson) -$105 @ Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) 9 pm CDT
Texas Moneyline -$105 -- 10 *
This is also the 3rd game of this series with Texas in complete control. Seattle hasn't scored a run in the first two games even though Texas had put out 2 pitchers who had been not pitching their best. The Rangers bats on the other hand have been extremely hot, putting up 11 runs in the 2 game series thus far.
Seattle's starter tonight is Felix Hernandez who has been having another great year. He brings to the table and ERA of 3.19 with a lot of K's but his record is only 8-7. That speaks to the fact that the Mariners have a very solid pitching staff, but can't put up any runs to back them up. Hernandez had generally pitched very well against the Rangers allowing 2 or fewer ER his last 3 starts against the Rangers. However, Seattle is currently on a 6 game losing streak in which the are struggling to put up any kind of offense. In fact, the Mariners haven't put up over 4 runs in the month of July. On the flip side of that, Texas has only been under 4 1 time in the month of July, a 2-0 win over Oakland last Sunday. The Rangers also average almost 5 runs per game against righty starters.
When looking at Texas starter CJ Wilson (9-3, 3.20 ERA), there is good reason to be optimistic in this game. He has pitched pretty well this season generally going at least 6 + innings giving up 2-3 runs. The Texas bats have also supported him well, hence his 9-3 record. Seattle has also struggled to hit leftys, only putting up 2.7 runs a game against leftys at home. Wilson has already had 2 good starts against Seattle this year, going 2-0 with an ERA a little north of 1.50.
Hernandez almost always delivers a solid game but so does CJ Wilson. It comes down to which lineup can put up runs. Clearly that is Texas. 1-9 they have hitters who can get on base or put the ball out of the park. From Elvis Andrus to Josh Hamilton to Endy Chavez, the Rangers are stacked. On the other side of that coin is the Mariners. Ichiro has been a mainstay at the top of their lineup for years, is now showing signs of age batting only .188 the month of July and .264 on the year Dustin Ackely (.289 avg) is the only person from other than Ichiro batting over .260. That's rough. Texas only has 2 players under .260, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, both very good players still.
After taking after thing into account, I think the Rangers win a close one tonight. Seattle just can't put in runs despite great outings from their pitchers.
Todays Picks 10*-- Indians @ Orioles over 9.5 10* Texas Moneyline (-$105)
A little bit on the format of the blog. My picks will be given in either 5, 10 or 20 point selections. 5 being the weakest, 20 being the strongest plays. I also hope to keep a running tally on here. Like I said, I understand very few people read this but I am basically doing this anyways, so might as well write it down so I have something to go back on. Enough of that stuff and on to the games.
Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) @ Baltimore Orioles (Simon) 6pm CDT -- Over 9.5 total - 10* play
This is the 3rd game of this series with Cleveland in control 2-0. Baltimore did show some signs of life last night but putting up 5 but once again, couldn't keep Cleveland in check and lost 6-5. Cleveland on the other hand, has had hot bats these first 2 games since the All Star break putting up 14 runs in 2 games.
Starting for the Indians tonight is Carlos Carrasco who is a RHP with an 8-6 record and 4.28 ERA on the year. He has posted an impressive 2.58 ERA on the road this year but his last 3 games (2 h, 1 A) he has a monstrous ERA of 8.36. Before that stretch he pitched very well in June but that was a long time ago in the world of pitchers. Still young (24), I feel the season and batters are catching up to him. He has a very good fastball and keeps his walks down which is a negative when looking going over 9.5 but like I said, has struggled mightily as of late. As for the Baltimore's hitters, they are missing Luke Scott and Vlad Guerrero which are two important components. However, they still have been able to put up 9 runs in 2 games against the Tribe. ALso, Baltimore has several veteran players on their team who are solid fastball hitters. If they jump on Carrasco early, it could spell a lot of runs.
As for Baltimore's pitcher, Alfredo Simon (1-2, 4.85 ERA) has been primarily used out of the pen. A journeyman at age 30, he has been rocked in the month of July pitching 9 innings and giving up 8 ER. Not a lot of walks, just getting shelled with hits for the most part. Sure his last 2 games were at Bos and at Tex which helped to balloon that ERA but if the O's had more confidence in him, they wouldn't use him as a spot starter. Simon also has some sort of legal obligation he must go back to the Dominican Republic to deal with on Sunday according to reports, so if his mind is away from the game it wouldn't be a total shocker. This is also only his 2nd start of the year and 2nd since April 2009. Simon has pitched much better at home this year but he has been put in positions where the game has already been decided yet someone needs to finish the game. Not exactly a ringing endorsement from a team on the ropes. Also, 2 Baltimore relievers are facing suspension to an already dismal bullpen.
Cleveland had struggled at the plate before the ASB but have since found life against the spiraling O's. Asdrubal Cabrera has been an absolute monster with big and timely hits for a young SS. Grady Sizemore even decided to join in the party last night with a HR. The bottom of the order has struggled but have still found a way to sneak in a run here and there.
As for trends, the Indians have gone over the total in 5 of last their last 7 while the Orioles have gone 9 of 11 games over the total while losing 10 of those games. While a moneyline play on the Indians could be warranted with the struggles of the Orioles as of late, I think the Over is a better play. Both pitchers have been getting shelled as of late and both teams do have some "pop" in their bats.
Texas Rangers (Wilson) -$105 @ Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) 9 pm CDT
Texas Moneyline -$105 -- 10 *
This is also the 3rd game of this series with Texas in complete control. Seattle hasn't scored a run in the first two games even though Texas had put out 2 pitchers who had been not pitching their best. The Rangers bats on the other hand have been extremely hot, putting up 11 runs in the 2 game series thus far.
Seattle's starter tonight is Felix Hernandez who has been having another great year. He brings to the table and ERA of 3.19 with a lot of K's but his record is only 8-7. That speaks to the fact that the Mariners have a very solid pitching staff, but can't put up any runs to back them up. Hernandez had generally pitched very well against the Rangers allowing 2 or fewer ER his last 3 starts against the Rangers. However, Seattle is currently on a 6 game losing streak in which the are struggling to put up any kind of offense. In fact, the Mariners haven't put up over 4 runs in the month of July. On the flip side of that, Texas has only been under 4 1 time in the month of July, a 2-0 win over Oakland last Sunday. The Rangers also average almost 5 runs per game against righty starters.
When looking at Texas starter CJ Wilson (9-3, 3.20 ERA), there is good reason to be optimistic in this game. He has pitched pretty well this season generally going at least 6 + innings giving up 2-3 runs. The Texas bats have also supported him well, hence his 9-3 record. Seattle has also struggled to hit leftys, only putting up 2.7 runs a game against leftys at home. Wilson has already had 2 good starts against Seattle this year, going 2-0 with an ERA a little north of 1.50.
Hernandez almost always delivers a solid game but so does CJ Wilson. It comes down to which lineup can put up runs. Clearly that is Texas. 1-9 they have hitters who can get on base or put the ball out of the park. From Elvis Andrus to Josh Hamilton to Endy Chavez, the Rangers are stacked. On the other side of that coin is the Mariners. Ichiro has been a mainstay at the top of their lineup for years, is now showing signs of age batting only .188 the month of July and .264 on the year Dustin Ackely (.289 avg) is the only person from other than Ichiro batting over .260. That's rough. Texas only has 2 players under .260, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, both very good players still.
After taking after thing into account, I think the Rangers win a close one tonight. Seattle just can't put in runs despite great outings from their pitchers.
Todays Picks 10*-- Indians @ Orioles over 9.5 10* Texas Moneyline (-$105)
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