After taking a longer look through the games this week, the matchup of Missouri -4 @ Texas Tech really caught my eye. Missouri was being talked about as a top team before they were soundly beaten by a very good Nebraska team. The Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert is a top caliber passer who shouldn't have a problem beating up on the weak Texas Tech secondary. Texas Tech has given up over 1500 passing yards the last 4 games. That is a season for some QBs. It is Texas Tech's homecoming, which is something to take into consideration, but Missouri is just the better team all around. Texas Tech does have a decent pass rush and comes into the game with 20 total sacks. One reason they have that many sacks, however, is due to the fact that just about any QB looks like an All American playing them. Their opponents are just naturally going to pass more to attack the Tech weakness.
The Texas Tech offense can put up points to keep up with Missouri, but Mizzou's defense is better than Texas Techs. They aren't world beaters by any means, but they can contain offenses much better than the Red Raiders can. Last week, TT got boat raced by a mediocre Texas AM team. The same AM team got beat 30-9 by Missouri a few weeks early. I know that isn't a great way to judge teams, but winning by 20 and losing by 20 to the same team is worth noting.
Now, on the the NC State @ Clemson over 50.5. Both teams have had their up and downs this season. Clemson losing last week 16-10 to BC and NC State beating FSU in dramatic fashion 28-24 last week. Both teams like to run the ball and neither team is particularly great at stopping the run. Clemson's offense will be without their #1 RB, but they like to spread the ball around and it will not be as big of loss as it would be to a one-back team. NC States offense is prone to a few turnovers but their defense also creates a few takeaways a game. This could very easily lead to a couple cheap TDs to push up the point total.
NC State also has a very decent passing game. This will keep them in the game in the event Clemson were to jump out on them. Clemson plays from ahead very well in their home stadium, so NC State might have to get to the air early. Another good sign for a shootout and lots of points.
Up until last week, Clemson's offense had been rolling putting up 27, and 31 in their previous two games. NC State has been rolling up the points avg 35 a game. Last years game was a 43-23 victory for Clemson. I don't envision a blowout like that this year due to NC States scoring ability. I do however see a score total in the area of 55-60.
These are my top 4 picks for the week over the last 2 posts. The games I like the most mentioned first (OK -3) and the games mentioned last I like less (NC State @ Clemson). Good luck and thanks for reading.