Sunday, August 7, 2011

The Sunday Post

So it's been a while since anything has been posted.  This is due to a few things.  Work and family time have kept me busy enough where I haven't had time to put out a decent  blog, not implying that the blogs were decent before, but at least acceptable.   Another reason has been my attempts to change up my betting strategy with baseball.

Previously I was looking every day for the best game or two that was available for that days card.  I would start with about 8 games and whittle it down to the 2 or so.  It was mildly successful so I decided to try to switch to only betting on "Ace" pitchers.  Sabathia, Verlander, Weaver, Lincecum, etc.  I only stuck with that for a few weeks but it seemed to be heading in the right direction.  Some days you would have a play, other days you wouldn't.  The major downside though is if the Ace loses, the moneyline is usually very high (-$160+) and can set you back when building a bankroll.  

So on to my newest strategy.  When I first started, I said I would narrow the games I liked down to 1 or 2 from a group of 8 or so.   Looking back the next day, my record on all games was generally over.500.  This has led to my newest strategy of betting several games in a day.  I have enough background information where I don't have to dig extensively into every team which saves a lot of time.  Moneylines are generally the recommended play.   I have decreased the bet size however while increasing the total number of bets.   This hedges against days with big losses.  Also, not every day warrants this kind of action.  When looking at the days card, maybe only 2 or 3 games look good.  Then my play is the best one of the day,  either winner or loser for the day depending on my #1 rated game.  Or just no play at all sometimes.   Other days by looking at the card, you can get a feel for several games.  That is where this method comes in.  Not sure if this will be sustainable long term, but is at least profitable in the short term thus far.

 As the season moves on....

As baseball approaches the post season, teams begin to feel the urgency or realize they are just playing out meaningless games.  Teams that need to win to keep postseason hopes alive will generally play better than teams that are going home after the season.  Pretty obvious, right?   Playing hot teams right now is also something to look at.  The Phillies are a prime example.  On the road, yet they are tearing it up since acquiring OF Hunter Pence at the trade deadline.  They realize post season is around the corner, they have been there before and it is time to step it up.  Teams like the Angels, Texas,  Brewers, and Cards are other teams to  watch that will be fighting for playoff spots.

As contenders rise to the top, Fall call ups become a reality for several teams.  Fringe players get benched for youngsters with a point to prove.  This can pan out two ways.  The younger player wants to make a name, has actual talent, and makes the most of it.  Other times, the minor league player may not be ready for the Show and can be a major disappoint for the last month or two.  Keep track of the lineups daily but don't be fooled by a .400 batting average. The guy may only have 4 games under his belt against weak pitching and is just waiting for a collapse.

Today's Picks

 Dodgers (Kershaw  13-4, 2.68 ERA) -$110 at D'Backs (Kennedy 13-3, 3.17 ERA) 

Dodgers have taken the first 2 games of the series at Arizona despite Arizona needing to come up with some wins to stay in the playoff race.  The Dodgers, on the other hand, generally don't have much to play. Teams front office in shambles, season is a mess, one of the few motivating factors left to play for ( other than money and pride) is a chance for Clayton Kershaw to get the Cy Young.  Although an outside chance, he has been just filthy. He has won 6 of his last 7 starts and has been striking out fools left and right.  He has 'struggled' his last two, however, giving up 4 ER in 17 innings while striking out only 10.  Also, Arizona has not faced a lefty starter in almost 10 days, not sure Kershaw wants to be the first lefty you see after stretch like that.   In Kershaw's 2 starts against AZ this year, he has gone 14 innings, 0 ER (4 R), and 19 K's.  On the flipside, Arizona's Ian Kennedy has also been pitching very well. He has won 5 straight starts while giving up 3 ER or less in all of them. 
Basically boils down to the LA is playing better and Kershaw has pitched a better than Kennedy, although not by as much as you would think.   Kershaw just too much as I put a 10* value on this play.

Padres (Latos, 5-11, 3.94 ERA) -$110 at Pirates (Correia 12-9, 4.71 ERA)

Very brief overview due to the fact that both of these teams, in the grand scheme, are done for the year.  I look at the Padres moneyline in this game though.  San Diego has absolutely piss pounded the Pirates the last 2 games.  Pirates have lost 11 of 12 after being named ESPN's feel good team of the summer.  So much for that.  Even with the Pirates picking up Derek Lee from Baltimore and Ryan Ludwick from SD, they have gone straight to the toilet.  Correia has been a grease fire at home his last 3 starts, going no more 4 2/3 innings and giving up at least 5 ER in all 3 games.   Ouch.  Latos on the other hand has been pitching fairly well after a rough start.  
After all is said and done, this is the perfect hot team v cold team and even colder pitcher.  Padres with a 10* play.

Reds (Arroyo 7-9, 5.45 ERA) at Cubs (Wells, 3-4. 5. ERA) -$110

Cubs have been red hot as of late, including roughing up the Reds #1 guy in Cueto yesterday.   That was the Cubbies 7th straight win, longest in 3 years I believe.  The Reds have lost 4 of 5 thus far on their road trip to Houston and Chicago.  Not exactly the cream of the crop.  Wells, although he has struggled this year, has traditionally pitched well against Cincy.  I think the big mismatch comes against Arroyo though.  The Cubs bats have been red hot.  And after watching Arroyo in his last few starts, it's amazing this guy still has a stop in the rotation.  He is a 3 run homer waiting to happen. Teams get lots of hits of him and in the 'Friendly Confines", I see Arroyo getting torched. 

The Cubs have burned my ass several times this year, much like the Jets in football last year, but I still feel they are just too hot to stay off of.  Cubs with a 10* play.

Football is Upon Us

Starting soon I will be going into college footballl previews.   I said that before, but then life happened and I have been crazy busy.  The NFL previews will have to wait due to the craziness surrounding the end of the lockout.  I played a few games of NCAA 12 on Xbox 360 and I now have the fever.  Baseball has been great but I only see myself involved with it another week or two.  Football is much more compelling to me and I would imagine many of you.  

Good luck and thanks for reading.

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