Saturday, August 13, 2011

Weekend Update

Once again, sorry for the infrequent posts. Hope to change that in the upcoming week.  I will be on the road a lot so that should help with posting frequency.   It has been a good week since changing strategies to wager on several games instead of only 1 or 2 games.  So in light of changing my strategy, I am going to change the format here as well for a while, at least for baseball.  Instead of posting a * value on a game or two, I will post picks on 4+ games, with a little less incite on each one and valued the same.  Here we go.

Angels (Weaver 14-5, 1.78 ERA -$130 @ Blue Jays (Romero 10-9, 2.94 ERA)

This match up pits a recently suspended Jerad Weaver against a very game Ricky Romero.   Both pitchers have had good seasons, as evidence by their ERA's.  But Weaver is pitching on another level right now.  He has been in the zone for the last 2 months with the exception of a half inning were Detroit got in his head and he decided to buzz a tower and get suspended for six games.  Romero has pitched exceptionally well his last 3 although they were v Orioles, @ Orioles and @ Tampa.

When breaking down the bats for these teams, the edge goes to Toronto.  The Jays are a power team for the most part while the Angels are more of a "small ball" type team.  The Jays haven't seen a pitcher of Weaver's caliber in a long time and I expect them to struggle.  Romero has had the tendency to to give up some baserunners via the walk, which helps to play into the Angels hand.

Both bullpens are mediocre which may not be much of a factor in the anticipated pitchers duel with top end starters on the mound.  The Angels are few games over .500 v lefty starters while the Jays are a few games under .500 v rightys.  The Angels are also still fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. The one thing that makes me a little leary is the Angels haven't faced a lefty starter in 10 days or so. They have a bunch of veterans on the team though and I think they shake off the rust.   Take the Angels moneyline with Weaver on the mound. 

Pirates (Correia 12-10, 4.78 ERA) @ Brewers (Estrada 2-7, 4.80)

This game is a classic hot home team v cold road team.  Pitt is in the middle of a 6 game road trip while the Brewers just returned home after taking 5 of 6 on the highway.  Estrada is coming out of the pen and making his first start since early may for the injured Narveson.  Estrada's numbers aren't very good but largely in part to a poor outing v Atlanta earlier this year.  On the other side of the diamond, Correia has been poor.  He pitched well a few games ago, otherwise his last 2 months have been very Jo Jo Reyes-esque.  If you don't know Jo Jo, just know he hadn't won a game in 2 years until earlier this year.   The Pirates bats caught some fire out in SF but the Giants have been struggling as evidence to their loss to the Marlins last night.   The Brewers bats have been red hot up and down the lineup. Everyone seems to be coming through right now, so Estrada may not be asked to do a whole lot. Also, Correia has been very poor in Milwaukee.

With Correia giving up a bunch as of late combined with a legit playoff team playing very hot, you have to lean on the Brewers to win.  But with a shaky starter in, he'll probably give up a couple.

Two plays on this game,  Brewers moneyline as they take care of  business and over the posted 8.5 although it will probably be 9 by first pitch. 

Astros (Rodriquez 8-8, 3.52 ERA) @ Dodgers (Kershaw 13-5. 2.79 ERA)

I know last time I said go Kershaw, it didn't pan out.   It will today.  Kershaw was in control of his last start, stayed in for one batter too long and gave a 2-run shot to the #8 hitter for his frst HR of the year.  Unlikely Houston will be able to pull off that magic.   The Dodgers middle of the order is solid, although not producing like they have in years past.  The 'Stros have traded away all their bats except and aging Carlos Lee.  The price is fairly high on the game at Dodgers -210 but Houston is the worst team in baseball and they are facing a top 10 pitcher. Despite the big risk, Dodgers moneyline straight to the bank.  Or if the lose, straight to the tavern.

 Sorry for the shortened blog  but I have run out of time.  These are some other games to look at:
Texas moneyline -$125-- Texas has the better bats and have dominated Oakland this year.  Lewis not the best pitcher and Cahill for Oakland has pitched well against Texas before, but Rangers  in playoff hunt and bats just too much.

Detroit moneyline -$135-- The Tigers haven't been playing all the well but neither are the Orioles.  Scherzer for Detroit is solid and Guthrie for Baltimore, although decent lately, is known for getting shelled. Detroit still playing for the postseason, Baltimore struggling to get wins behind an ugly pitching staff.  Even with Boesch out for Detroit, go with the Tigers.

This is still very much a work in progress but take from it what you can.  Thanks for reading and good luck!

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