Wednesday, September 21, 2011

College Football is back

So the title is a little off because college football has already been back for a few weeks but I have been too busy to post about it.  Although I have found time to gamble, going 14-9 in both college and pros since the start of football.  But enough about that and time for the first game.

San Diego St +10.5 @ Michigan.  O/U 60.5

San Diego State might be most recently known for producing Michigan's current coach, Brady Hoke, but they are definitely going to make a name for themselves after this game.   The Aztecs have a very potent offense led by stud running back Ronnie Hillman, currently 2nd in nation in rushing, QB Ryan Lindley, a crafty veteran who has played in some big games, and a veteran O-Line.

SDSU defense hasn't been great but has done enough for them to remain unbeaten.   They gave up a few big plays to Washington State last week, otherwise kept them in check.  Especially in the 2nd half.  The Aztecs held on for a nail biter against the running attack of Army, but they won't see many teams with an obscure offense like the Black Knights ran.  The Aztecs run an attacking style of the 3-3-5 defense which can lead to a big play for either team.

The Michigan offense is very potent, led by perennial early season Heisman hopeful, Denard Robinson.  Robinson is able to light it up with his feet as well as his arm.  But with the outstanding athleticism, comes a penchant for making costly errors.  The Aztecs will likely keep up their pressure defense to help force Robinson into making bad decisions.  But to do that, SDSU has to contain Michigan's run game.  I'm not totally sold on the Wolverine O-Line as of yet especially against a pressure defense, which may lead to a rough day for Robinson.

Overall, Michigan may be able to sneak out the win but I definitely think SDSU can cover the 10.5 points in higher scoring affair.   My play would be SDSU +10.5 but a very solid play is over the 60.5 total.

LSU -6 @ West Virginia

Just a real quick break down of this game.  It is going to boil down to LSU having better athletes at every position but QB.  The Tigers offensive line will wear down the weaker WVU defensive front with a power running game that has been very effect this year.  On the otherside of the ball, WVU QB Geno Smith is very capable of making plays.  But so is the LSU defense.  LSU rotates 5-7 people on the d-line, all of which have pro potential.  LSU's defense is littered with NFL potential at every position.  Although WVU may be competitive in the Big East this year, LSU is the cream of the SEC crop. 

LSU -6  is the play as the Tigers prove to be too much in a sound beating of the Mountaineers. 

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ Texas A&M

Another brief breakdown which I will try to expound upon later.    Oklahoma State has an incredible offense with lots of NFL potential.  Texas A&M is playing at home, which is a big plus in their favor, and also has a very high powered offense.  Both QB's, Weeden and Tannehill, are prone to make mistakes.  Both defenses are suspect and can give up a few big plays here and there.   OSU has played a very solid Arizona team that they thoroughly put a whoopin on in the 2nd half.  This is the first real test for A&M and it will be interesting to see how Tannehill reacts in his first full year as starter.   I think this game comes down to the wire and could go either direction.  With that being said, OSU +4.5 is the play as the Cowboys could steal this one.

Thanks for reading and sorry for the short commentary.  Hopefully I will find time to blog again more frequently.  For those of you that actually read this, if you are curious as to further insight into any college or pro game, leave a comment and I will try to respond.  It is always interesting to get genuine opinions from others when betting the games.   Good luck

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