Sunday, July 17, 2011

Nice Start

Yesterday was my first blog back and went 2-0 on my two 10* star plays.  The Rangers won 5-1 for the moneyline win but the Cleveland-Baltimore game took all the way to the top of the 9th to cover that game.  The Indians put up 3 for the cover.  Gambling gods were shining down yesterday so can't complain.

Only a single game out there that really catches my eye,a moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 @ Cubs.  The Marlins have been playing exceptionally well since the new "old" manager Jack McKeon came back to right the ship.  Marlins have gone 7-1 in their last 8 while the Cubs have struggled to 3-9 the last 12.

The Marlins listed started today is Chris Volstad (5-8, 5.40 ERA).  Volstad's numbers are actually very deceiving. Since June 1, he has pitched very well with the exception of 2 games against division foe Philadelphia, in which he was absolutely shelled.  This Cubs team, however, is not close to the Philadelphia team that has destroyed him this season.  Volstad has not given up more than 3 ER since June with the exception of the Phillies.  One facet to Volstads game that will help him in the friendly confines of Wrigley is his ability to get ground ball outs.

These teams have been going in two different directions lately and the offensive numbers speak highly to that.  The Cubs have put up over 5 runs twice since the beginning of July, while the Marlins have only put up less than 5 every game with the exception of Fridays game against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster, a 2-1 loss.  Todays starting pitcher for the Cubs, Randy Wells (1-3, 6.80 ERA), doesn't appear to be the man to slow down these red hot Marlins.  Wells has only 1 quality start in the last two and a half months.  That was a month ago at Wrigley against a poor road team in Milwaukee.  He has given up at least 4 runs in every start since then, although he does manage to log about 6 innings.  Along with Wells woes, the Cubs bullpen is in major flux with closer Carlos Marmol being demoted after blowing his 7th save of the year.

The Marlins have already won 2 of 3 in this series, the lone loss being Dempster's game on Friday.  The Cubs continued their pre ASB slide by getting hammered 13-3.  My only concern is the Cubs are 7-1 following a 10-run loss this year.  I would say that is a good stat, but this is the 9th time the Cubs have lost by double digits.  Volstad will continue to pitch well against teams not named the Phillies and Wells will have no answer for the Marlins.

So my play today is a 10* moneyline play on the Marlins -$104 at Cubs.

Record--  10* 2-0

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