Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Thursdays Pick

Wednesday's game went about as expected, other than the Giants didn't win.  Pitchers duel with 2 average or below hitting clubs.  Lincecum pitched well, but Kershaw was an absolute beast, striking out 12 in 8 innings of 3 hit ball.  The over/under was set at 5.5 runs and had crossed my mind to bet the under but 5.5 total runs is just one soft inning from being a loss.  So, another 5* loss puts my record at 5* 1-1, 10* 4-1 and 20* 0-1.  Tomorrow is another busy travel day, so I am posting Thursday's winner (hopefully) tonight.  This losing shit sucks, time to get back on the right side of the ledger.

Yankees -$140 (Sabathia, 14-4, 2.64 ERA) at Rays (Shields, 8-8, 2.60 ERA)

A moneyline play on the Yankees is what I'm banking on tomorrow.  This is the last game of the series between these two division rivals.  The Rays have struggle during their last 3 series (@ NY, v Bos, v NY) and the clear sign is the level of competition they are playing.  The Yankees, on the flip side, have been playing decent despite A-Fraud being out and Big Tex Mark Texiera forgetting how to hit the damn ball.  The Yankees bullpen, although not stellar, does have Robertson and Mo Rivera to lock things down when the games starting winding down.  Unfortunately for TB, their bullpen does not have a real go to guy.  The have a collection of pitchers who can each get the job done on a given night, but no guarantees the same guy shows up 2 nights in a row.

A big (literally) advantage the Yankees have is CC Sabathia though.  He has been lights out while allowing only 1 ER in the month of July in 24 innings.  The Yanks have gone 11-1 in CC last 12 starts.  Not too shabby.  He has also been given great run support, scoring less than 4 only once but that was against James Shields and TB on July 10th, a 1-0 victory.  Shields started out red-hot for the Rays but they have lost his last 4 starts while scoring only 10 runs in those 4 games.   Shields was roughed up at home for a 6 spot in 6 innings of work against the BoSox his last time out.  Boston  has been hitting more consistently than the Yankees but they still can't be overlooked.    The Rays stole their 1 win for the series Tuesday night as I think the Yankees behind CC beat them in the finale.  I would strongly look to the runline ( Yankees 1.5 @ +$130) but I have been absolutely dogshit when betting the runline.  10* on the Yankees moneyline.


A little side not about runlines.  To bet a the runline, you get +/- 1.5 runs depending on which side you choose.  The Yankees tomorrow seem like a perfect candidate to play it but my luck has been poor with it.  Runlines seem almost like a sucker bet unless you really know what you are doing.  I'm still a rookie in baseball wagering but with experience I realize that they are a little above me yet.  Nice payoffs, but that 1 run means a lot, especially if you are betting the home team and could lose an AB in the bottom of 9 if they have the lead.  However, much like the teaser in football, there is a home for.  I just need to find it.  Once again, good luck and appreciate taking the time to read this.  

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