Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Back to Reality

Yesterday was a rough one, losing Boston on a 20* play and the Indians losing a 10* play as well. Boston was within striking distance til the very end when Baltimore blew it open whereas the Indians had the lead going into the bottom of 9 when the Tribes closer Chris Perez decides to puke all over himself and give up the game.  Frustrating.  Generally I would have only posted a 10* play on both games, but having some money in the bank I decided to up the ante with a 20* play.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.  On to today's games and back to the winning side of the ledger.   Record still stands at 20* 0-1, 10* 4-1, 5* 1-0 for an approximate total of +10* ( Wins - Losses - Juice = Profit).

Dodgers (Kershaw, 10-8, 2.44 ERA) @ Giants -$135 (Lincecum, 8-7, 2.99 ERA)

Only one game on the docket today that really piques my interest and the is a moneyline play on the Giants.  The Giants have had the Dodgers number as of late, winning the first 2 games of the series in SF.  The Giants as a team are 18-7 vs leftys this year while the Dodgers are 30-41 against rightys.  Also, the Giants are 30-16 at home while the Dodgers are 19-28 on the road.
Kershaw has pitched 15 straight innings without giving up and ER although he did give up 4 unearned last game yet still getting the win vs AZ.  Lincecum has given up only 1ER in each of his last two starts, clearly moving beyond his early season struggles.  Kershaw and Lincecum have both been pitching extremely well as of late but the difference could be in the bullpen.  Dodgers pen is not nearly as effective as the Giants, as evidence by last night where the Dodgers pen allowed the Giants to break the tie and the  Brian Wilson came in to close the door on the struggling LA team. Dodgers have a pen ERA of 3.51 on the road while the Giants post a stingy 2.10 ERA at home.  As a staff, the edge goes to SF, although Kershaw should be able to eat up some innings to prevent the pen from screwing things up.

As for the bats, Dodgers haven't had much pop, only putting up over 4 runs twice since early July.  However, both games they scored 6 runs in, were started by Kershaw.  Matt Kemp is the stud in the Dodgers lineup while the #2 guy, Andre Either struggles mightly batting under .200 in July and .059 over the last 7 days. Ouch!  Tony Gwynn Jr (lead off hitter) has been putting up decent numbers batting .333 in July and just a shade over that the last seven but Furcal (#2 spot) has negated that by batting .095 for the month.  When 2 of your 4 hitters are batting under .100 for the month and under .065 the L7, that generally spells trouble. 

In contrast, the Giants have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of the last 7 games, including the first two against the Dodgers.  The top of the Giants order, 1-4, are all batting over .300 for the month of July and 3 of 4 batting over .300 the last 7 days.  The number 5 hitter, Cody Ross, is at .270 for the month.  Well above what the Dodgers are doing.  The Giants also trader for utility infielder Jeff Keppinger yesterday from the Astros.  Although not a major name, he is having a decent year at the plate and can help the Giants in some capacity. 

This game should be very low scoring with 2 stud pitchers on the mound, but I am giving the edge to the Giants in this one, but it only warrants a 5* play.  Good luck everyone and thanks again for reading.

1 comment:

  1. Keep these coming, love the read. I'll be in Vegas on Friday and Saturday - so make sure you have your best analysis then, haha.